Why Can’t the Indian Government Fix Manipur?
India’s northeast, a hilly region inhabited by various tribal communities, has long been plagued by ethnic clashes. The territory has experienced ongoing tensions between different tribes but has been held together primarily through strong intervention from New Delhi. With foreign powers, including China and the United States, showing interest in the region, the Indian government has often sought peaceful solutions to resolve these conflicts. As part of these efforts, the Union government has accommodated numerous demands, granting various rights, authorities, and even statehood to different tribes.
However, there have been several instances where demands for separate rights, administrative systems, and statehood have led to significant unrest, and the central government has at times struggled to intervene, as these conflicts are deeply rooted in generational tribal animosities. This hostility often extends to the central government itself when it attempts to intervene. National political parties used these disputes to gain influence in the region, escalating ethnic clashes to the political level. Many states in the region are now ruled by national parties in alliance with tribal parties, forcing the government to weigh political interests when trying to neutralize ethnic tensions.
While such scenarios are common in the northeast, Manipur has now become the focal point, with a deadly clash between two ethnic groups escalating into what resembles a civil war. Despite efforts, the situation remains unresolved. As horrifying news continues to emerge from Manipur, the issue has become a national concern, with international media criticizing the Indian government, which now appears ineffective. Why is this happening?
Two ethnic groups, the Meitei and the Kuki-Zo, are fighting each other with weapons, each attempting to control their territories, attacking, and ousting the other. Women are increasingly targeted in these clashes. The conflict between the Meitei and Kuki-Zo has a long history, dating back centuries, with frequent clashes. The situation has worsened now, and the Hindu nationalist BJP government, in power at both the national and state levels, has failed to quell the violence The national government is protecting the state government and its Chief Minister, Biren Singh, who is from the Meitei community. The government is now accused of supporting the Meitei, the original and majority Hindu community, against the Kuki-Zo, who are predominantly Christian. Earlier media reports outside India highlighted the Hindu-Christian nature of the conflict, though both ethnic groups include people from various religions, including Islam. The latest wave of attacks, which made headlines in May 2023, followed a High Court verdict that granted reservations to the Meitei community, which was expected to affect the Kuki-Zo people. Experts believe this was only one factor contributing to the escalation. Since then, the violence has resulted in at least 221 deaths, over 1,000 injuries, 60,000 people displaced, and numerous homes and buildings burned.
These ethnic clashes have become a serious political debate in Indian Parliament, with opposition parties and even BJP-affiliated organizations criticizing the central government’s inaction. The state government has undoubtedly failed, but the central government has not taken steps to address the situation, such as removing Chief Minister Biren Singh, who is accused of exacerbating the conflict. The opposition is pointing fingers at Narendra Modi, alleging that he is indifferent to the state’s plight.
In the political arena, there is growing concern about why the central government is allowing the situation to escalate. Despite the Indian Army being one of the most powerful in the world, its deployment in the region has been minimal. The central government has permitted the state government to manage the situation, although experts believe that a military intervention might draw international attention, as the Kuki-Zo are ethnically linked to Myanmar and could attract foreign influence, potentially worsening the conflict.
The Kuki-Zo are now demanding a separate state, which could further inflame tensions from Meiteis if statehood is granted. Such developments would likely lead to increased demands for more states from the region, creating more tribal nature. Additionally, removing Biren Singh could cause discontent among the Meitei population. Therefore, the central government is currently focusing on conducting negotiations between the conflicting parties.
While addressing the crisis at the central level appears to be the most viable option, the central government faces an uphill battle as both ethnic groups remain entrenched in their positions. Resolving this issue cannot be achieved simply by attempting to appease all parties involved. Instead, the central government might develop temporary measures to address the immediate concerns, though a permanent solution will undoubtedly be a protracted process.
It is noteworthy that the Indian judiciary is increasingly assuming a more proactive role than the government itself. On July 31, the Supreme Court demanded a comprehensive breakdown of around 6,000 FIRs related to the violence in Manipur. The court was deeply shocked to learn that it took 14 days for the police to register even a zero FIR concerning the brutal assault and public humiliation of two women. During the hearing on August 1, the Supreme Court criticized the police investigations as slow and described the situation as an absolute breakdown of the constitutional machinery. The court’s intervention is hoped to accelerate peace negotiations and bring about a resolution.
