Author: Caracal

  • Pakistan Set to Widen Crackdown on Opposition Using Anti-Terror Laws

    Pakistan Set to Widen Crackdown on Opposition Using Anti-Terror Laws

    Pakistan, a country formed for South Asian Muslims by the British, is facing a deep existential crisis. The people are beginning to rise against the miserable conditions imposed by the ruling power bloc, a wealthy elite that has controlled the state for decades. While this elite thrives, the general population suffers immensely due to economic collapse. This power bloc, composed of the military, British-linked politicians, and Islamic clerics, has shaped Pakistan and led it through its turbulent 74-year history. Now, however, the public seems fed up with this system and has begun to push back on a large scale, posing a significant threat not only to this entrenched elite but to Pakistan itself.

    The ongoing clashes between the public and the elite began when the ousted, outspoken Prime Minister Imran Khan decided to challenge the establishment as a representative of the people. Though he, too, is a product of the same elite, his emergence as a figurehead against the ruling bloc has escalated the conflict to new heights. Now, the imprisoned former prime minister has become a national symbol of revolution. Pakistan’s military and police are intensifying their crackdown on Imran Khan, his party, and their supporters, using anti-terrorism laws in a determined bid to quash dissent.

    Protesters and authorities have clashed repeatedly across the state. Over the weekend, hundreds of riot police deployed tear gas and baton charges as supporters of Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) gathered in Islamabad and Lahore. Dozens of PTI members, including prominent leaders and lawyers, were arrested, with hundreds more, including Khan, facing charges under terrorism laws.

    Khan, 72, has been incarcerated since August 2023, facing over 100 charges of corruption and terrorism, which he claims are politically motivated, following his decision to confront the authorities. He has been forcibly sidelined from mainstream politics, and his party was banned from participating in the last general election, paving the way for the return of the elite to parliament. However, public support for Khan remains evident, as many party-backed candidates who ran as independents were elected.

    Pakistani authorities have also decided to take a more aggressive stance against groups that may challenge their authority, beyond just PTI. There have been mass arrests and a ban on the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM), an organization advocating for the rights of Pakistan’s ethnic Pashtun community, an inter-state group also prominent in Afghanistan, under terrorism laws.

    The announcement came suddenly on Sunday night, when the interior ministry imposed the ban on PTM, which has long criticized Pakistan’s powerful military establishment for its role in abuses and enforced disappearances in Pashtun-dominated areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Recently, PTM had begun mobilizing large numbers and was planning a historic three-day national gathering in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa this week. The gathering was intended as a response to the worsening security situation, an increase in militant attacks, and abuses committed by the military against Pashtuns. In a rare show of unity, PTI and other opposition parties had agreed to join the event.

    The Pakistani government, widely seen as a proxy for the military, is increasingly adopting an iron-fisted approach to suppress opposition, even as it struggles with growing economic and security crises. The military fears rising dissent from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan, and Kashmir could lead to separatism. Militant attacks have continued to escalate in Pakistan’s border areas following the Taliban’s takeover of neighboring Afghanistan, with little sign of improvement in the security situation. Nearly 1,000 people have been killed in militant attacks and counter-terrorism operations in the past three months alone, most of them in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.

    While senior figures in the ruling PML-N and the military have repeatedly blamed Imran Khan and PTI for the country’s challenges, the reality is that Pakistan is facing an existential crisis, with the public growing increasingly disillusioned with the administration. Calls for Islamic solidarity and anti-India sentiment are unlikely to resolve the country’s deepening problems.

  • Kashmir Opts Out of Bharatiya Janata Party

    Kashmir Opts Out of Bharatiya Janata Party

    India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has once again failed in its mission to conquer Jammu and Kashmir, a Muslim-majority state, as the people opted for an alliance between the region’s largest party, the National Conference, and India’s opposition party, the Indian National Congress, to form a government. Jammu and Kashmir, which elected its assembly after 10 years, will witness Omar Abdullah, the leader of the National Conference and a prominent figure from the Abdullah dynasty, returning to power. This marks a significant political win for the opposition INDIA alliance, strengthening its broader political strategy to weaken the BJP’s dominance in Indian politics.

    The INDIA coalition, comprising the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC), Indian National Congress (INC), and Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)), secured a majority in the election, winning 49 of the 90 seats. While the BJP, which contested alone, improved its seat tally and vote percentage, it failed to reach the crucial majority and ended up with 29 seats. The Jammu and Kashmir People’s Democratic Party (PDP), another major regional party, faced significant humiliation, winning only 3 seats.

    Elections were held in Jammu and Kashmir from 18 September to 1 October 2024, in three phases, to elect 90 members of the Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly. The results were announced a week later, on 8 October 2024, with almost 63% voter turnout. This election holds significant importance as it is the first assembly election in over a decade and the first since the territory’s special status was revoked and its statehood withdrawn. Additionally, Jammu and Kashmir elections always attract international interest due to the region’s Muslim majority, which has historically leaned toward secessionism, often with support from Pakistan and China. The elections have been marred by terrorist attacks in the past, and this assembly election was similarly held under the threat of terrorism and insurgency.

    The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has redefined Kashmir’s political landscape, did everything in its power to secure a majority in the state assembly, considering it a crucial objective. They poured significant resources into the region and carried out extensive infrastructure developments. No other state has received the level of attention from the BJP’s central government that Jammu and Kashmir has. The party also delimited constituencies in a way that was seen as favorable to them and introduced provisions such as granting nomination powers to the Lieutenant Governor. The BJP’s election strategy was clear: to maximize the number of seats from the Jammu division, which has a Hindu majority, while splitting the votes in the Kashmir division, which might favor the National Conference (NC)–Indian National Congress (INC) alliance, by supporting multiple independent candidates. However, this strategy failed. Although the BJP increased its vote percentage and number of seats in the Jammu division, it could not reach its target as other players, such as the National Conference, Aam Aadmi Party, and independents, gained ground. Meanwhile, the JKNC-INC alliance successfully prevented vote splitting.

    At the same time, It’s a strong comeback for the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) and its leader Omar Abdullah, who is set to assume the Chief Minister’s post for the second time. He has been out of power for nearly a decade and was even humiliated by his loss in the parliamentary election conducted almost six months ago, where he was defeated by an independent candidate in a crushing manner. However, this time, the people of the Kashmir Valley rallied behind him, and he won from both seats he contested.

    The resurgence of Kashmiri sentiment and the downfall of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which was the main challenger to the JKNC and its alliance with the Indian National Congress (INC), significantly contributed to the JKNC’s election victory. Despite the INC’s relatively poor performance—contesting 38 seats and winning only 6, a drop from 12 in the previous election—the dramatic collapse of the PDP, which won only 3 seats, down from 28 in the last election when it was the largest party, played a pivotal role.

    Other national parties, like the Communist Party of India (Marxist), retained their only seat with Yusuf Tarigami’s victory, while the Aam Aadmi Party made its debut in Jammu and Kashmir by securing its first seat. Most local parties, except for the JKNC, faced a complete collapse in this election.

    The victory of the JKNC, without any possibility of political maneuvering, is an undeniable setback for the BJP’s hard work. It is expected that the Jammu and Kashmir state government will increasingly clash with the central government, as JKNC and its leader, Omar Abdullah, hold policies and demands that are in stark contradiction to those of the BJP. The JKNC has always emphasized Kashmiri pride in contrast to the BJP’s pan-Indian vision. The JKNC demands the restoration of statehood, the reinstatement of the special constitutional status, and an end to BJP rule in the region, particularly through the Lieutenant Governor’s authority—none of which are likely to be accepted by the BJP.

    As a result, political confrontations between these governments are expected in the coming days, although Omar Abdullah has referred to Prime Minister Modi as a gentleman and has expressed hope for a good relationship with the Union government.

  • A Year That Redefined the Middle East

    A Year That Redefined the Middle East

    It has been a year since Hamas, the organization that controls Gaza, carried out a cross-border attack on Israel. The brutal attack on October 7, 2023, drastically reshaped the politics of the Middle East. The old narrative of a united Islamic front against Jews has faded, shrinking into a conflict between Shia Muslims and Jews, while Sunni Muslim governments have largely withdrawn, appearing more aligned with Israel. Hamas’s attack, likely an Iranian attempt to disrupt the growing relationship between Saudi Arabia, a leading Sunni state, and Israel, seems to have clearly backfired. It shifted the narrative from portraying Palestinians as victims of a cruel Israel to one where Israel is seen as needing counterattacks for security. Deeply humiliated by the unexpected assault from Iran’s proxy, Hamas, Israel is now in full retaliation mode—not just against Hamas, but targeting all Shia militant groups, with Iran as the ultimate focus.

    The Hamas attack is now being commemorated worldwide on its anniversary. Today, many events and rallies are taking place globally to remember the largest massacre of Jews since World War II. More than 1,200 men, women, and children were killed that day in a country built to guarantee their safety. Another 250 people—including a nine-month-old baby—were taken hostage. Many remain captive, and some may never return home.

    Following the Hamas attacks, Israel received considerable global sympathy. The country has since leveraged this support to embark on a mission to eliminate all threats surrounding its borders. Additionally, the attacks successfully united a nation that had been deeply divided over internal politics. Prime Minister Netanyahu, a shrewd and seasoned politician, has skillfully capitalized on the situation.

    At the same time, many pro-Palestinian and anti-war rallies are taking place on the anniversary of Hamas’s attack on Israel. Many supporters view Hamas’s actions as revolutionary and believe they should be commemorated. Interestingly, these pro-Palestinian rallies are widely seen in Europe and parts of Southeast Asia, while countries like India and those in the GCC have remained largely absent

    These rallies condemn Israel, which is now punishing Gaza and Lebanon. They argue that Israel’s right to defend itself does not allow it to violate the laws of war. Protesters are outraged by the Israeli onslaught on Gaza, which, according to Gaza’s health authorities, has killed over 41,500 Palestinians, most of them women, children, and infants—though Israel disputes these figures. Survivors are displaced, starving, and desperate, as the humanitarian crisis deepens with Israel continuing its war. Additionally, around 2,000 people have been reported dead in Lebanon, with deaths also reported in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran in relation to the conflict.

    Destruction and bloodshed in the Middle East are expected to continue, with strong fears that the region is sliding deeper into war. What began with Hamas and Hezbollah has now clearly escalated to involve Iran. It is becoming increasingly apparent that the conflict is primarily between Israel and Iran, with less focus needed on groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, or the Houthis.

    The war on social media, which spreads misinformation and hate, has become more visible over the years and is likely to intensify in the coming days. Over the past year, we’ve witnessed a decline in the reliability of traditional media regarding the Israel-Iran proxy conflict, often labeled as liberal, left-wing, or pro-Islamic by critics online.

    When analyzing the October 7th attack and its aftermath, it is clear that the Middle East no longer resembles the previous era, when Palestine united not just Arab nations but Muslims worldwide. Countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria—once vocal opponents of Israel—seem disengaged now. Many had expected these governments to rally behind Hamas, but that support has significantly faded in recent months.

    In global politics, Israel has regained its importance and is enjoying a stronger position. Another political shift is evident: while Europe, with its large Muslim population, is witnessing more pro-Palestinian rallies, Asia, which used to be the epicenter of such movements, now appears more pro-Israel, especially in countries like India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This conflict between Israel and Iran also highlights a unipolar world, with Russia and China appearing weaker in international politics. Most importantly, the Palestinian dream—the global Muslim dream of Palestinian statehood—seems to be fading.

  • How Israel Could Destabilize Iran

    How Israel Could Destabilize Iran

    Iran, the land of the Aryans and the cradle of civilization, has a rich history shaped by the rise and fall of many kingdoms over the centuries. This diverse and multicultural nation has experienced unity under the formidable leadership of great rulers. Today, modern Iran, known as the Islamic Republic, encompasses a diverse array of cultures and ethnicities, even as it is predominantly characterized by its Shia Islamic identity. The current theocratic regime is infamous for its forceful enforcement of Islamic laws and values, and it also applies considerable pressure on various ethnic groups within the country while extending its influence over other nations through religiously motivated militant organizations.

    Iran keeps many Islamic issues alive and is known for challenging Saudi Arabia over the leadership of Islam. Its long standing desire for leadership in the Muslim world has contributed to ongoing tensions with Israel. Relations between the two states are at an all-time low, marked by missile exchanges and targeted attacks on leaders. Though Iran and Israel do not share a direct border, Iran’s political influence extends into areas near Israel, and both have engaged in a proxy conflict for years, often framed as a holy war. Now, however, Israel seems determined to end this indirect conflict and neutralize the threat from Iran.

    Many believe that rising tensions could lead to a full-scale war, while others argue that Israel will refrain from such actions, as Iran’s geographic position—controlling the strategic Strait of Hormuz—gives it significant leverage. Iran’s geography has always made it a difficult country to conquer. However, Israel seeks revenge, as retaliation has been a defining part of its history. Therefore, most likely, they will adopt a highly strategic approach, with the ultimate goal of dismantling the Islamic Republic. Political experts believe Israel may exploit Iran’s complex ethnic makeup, which has only been held together by the tougher actions of the Islamic regime thus far.

    Iran has consistently accused Israel and the West of exporting Western values into the country, which it believes could threaten its theocratic government. It has also accused foreign governments of attempting to influence various ethnic groups within Iran that share cultural ties with other sovereign nations. As a result, Iran has closed many communication channels to the outside world. However, Israel is likely to breach these barriers to provide more information to the Iranian people, considering information a powerful tool to undermine the Islamic Republic. Israel may also play a role in promoting the growing celebration of pre-Islamic Persian glory, which could challenge the Islamic Republic, a regime accused of sacrificing Persian identity for an Islamic one.

    Iran is at risk of fragmentation if Israel decides to act. While Iran’s mountainous geography provides a strategic advantage, it also serves as a natural barrier that isolates various communities with different ethnicities, languages, and identities. Many of these groups, such as the Azeris, Kurds, Arabs, Baloch, Turkmen, and Mazandaran, maintain foreign connections or share ties with neighboring countries. These regions have preserved their distinct identities despite the challenges posed by Tehran. Some of these regions demand greater autonomy, while others lean toward separatism. However, the Islamic Republic will not tolerate such movements and continues to attempt to unify the population through religious identity and increasingly authoritarian measures.

    During the 1979 Islamic Revolution, three ethnic groups—Kurds, Turkmens, and Arabs—backed by their counterparts abroad, attempted to ascend and form an independent state. The Azeris demanded more autonomy, and although they were suppressed, the situation remained volatile and could flare up again. Israel could potentially assist in this regard. The United States and the United Kingdom, known for similar practices, might ally with these ethnic groups and their kin abroad based on Israel’s interests. The Azeris will seek to unite with Azerbaijan, and the Kurds in Iran will likely also pursue the formation of a grand Kurdistan.

    Additionally, the oil-rich Arab regions in Iran could attract special U.S. support, and such a move could completely collapse Iran’s economy. In southeastern Iran, the Baloch have maintained close ties with their counterparts in Pakistan, aiming for a separate state from the very beginning. This cross-border ethnic solidarity could easily destabilize Iran, especially since Tehran currently has poor relationships with its neighbors. If they lose control over these territories or make them volatile again, the Persian-majority region could shrink to a landlocked state, jeopardizing all its geopolitical advantages.

    It needs to be considered that Israel is already stretched in its efforts to build strong relationships with Azerbaijan regarding Azeri separatism and with Saudi Arabia concerning Arab separatism. Through the growing relationship with Saudi Arabia, Israel can also exploit the Sunni-Shia conflict. The Baloch territories, which are demanding separatism, are predominantly Sunni.

    Recognizing the challenges posed by Israel, Iran is also developing counter-strategies. They present themselves as the saviors of Muslims, not only for Shia but for all branches of Islam. They demand unity from other Islamic countries to carry out their religious task of eliminating Jews. Mass arrests of protesters or separatists from various ethnic groups, accused of terrorism, are also taking place. However, Iran is playing a risky game; as long as they target Israel, they are at risk of collapse.

  • How Iswaran’s Sentence Will Impact Singapore Politics

    How Iswaran’s Sentence Will Impact Singapore Politics

    Prominent Singaporean politician Subramaniam Iswaran, better known as S. Iswaran, has been sentenced to 12 months in prison following a high-profile trial that attracted international attention in a country known for its stringent anti-corruption stance. Iswaran, 62, admitted to accepting gifts valued at over S$403,000 while in public office and to obstructing justice. The gifts included tickets to the Formula 1 Grand Prix, a private jet ride, a Brompton T-line bicycle, and alcohol. Justice Vincent Hoong, who presided over the High Court proceedings, emphasized that Iswaran’s actions represented a serious abuse of power that eroded public trust in government institutions. The trial and subsequent sentence have ignited widespread debate within Singapore’s political circles and are anticipated to have a significant impact on the upcoming general election.

    Iswaran, one of Singapore’s most prominent Indian-origin politicians, is set to report to prison on October 7, marking the first time in nearly 50 years that a political figure in the country has faced trial. A long-serving member of the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP), Iswaran represented the West Coast division of West Coast GRC in Parliament from 2001 to 2024. He also occupied important positions as Minister-in-Charge of Trade Relations from 2018 to 2024 and as Minister for Transport from 2021 to 2024. Initially charged with 35 counts, including two for corruption, one for obstructing justice, and 32 for obtaining valuable items as a public servant, Iswaran ultimately pleaded guilty to lesser charges after the corruption counts were reduced. He will serve his sentence at the notorious Changi Prison.

    The Iswaran case has delivered a significant blow to Singapore’s corruption-free reputation and dented the image of the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP). Long celebrated for its clean governance, the nation now finds that Iswaran’s scandal has undermined this perception. Iswaran held several key positions in government, including roles in the prime minister’s office, the Ministry of Home Affairs, communications, and most recently, the Ministry of Transport, casting shadows on the government and the PAP. Despite Singapore’s lawmakers being among the highest-paid in the world—with some ministers earning over S$1 million (US$758,000)—residents continue to struggle with rising living costs. The government justifies these high salaries as a safeguard against corruption, but Iswaran’s case suggests that corruption may persist despite these measures.

    The case against Iswaran is part of a series of political scandals that have shaken the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP). In 2023, a separate corruption investigation into the real estate dealings of two other ministers ultimately cleared them of wrongdoing, but the scandal still raised concerns. Around the same time, the speaker of Parliament resigned due to an extramarital affair with another lawmaker. The property scandal, in particular, sparked debate about the privileges enjoyed by ministers in Singapore. 

    Singapore is mandated to hold a general election by November 2025. While the People’s Action Party (PAP) remains the strongest party and is likely to win, its share of the popular vote has decreased in recent elections, facing challenges from an increasingly influential opposition. The Workers’ Party secured 10 seats in Parliament in the last election but has also been embroiled in controversy, with its leader, Pritam Singh, charged with lying under oath to a parliamentary committee—a charge he denies. The Iswaran case is expected to be a significant topic in the upcoming general election, greatly impacting the PAP’s campaigns.

  • How Does Iran Grant Israel a License for Direct Attack?

    How Does Iran Grant Israel a License for Direct Attack?

    There is no room for talks, compromises, or peace in the ongoing “Holy War” between Israel and Iran. The conflict has escalated far beyond the initial Israel-Hamas confrontation and Israel’s retaliatory actions following the October 7th Hamas attack. It has now transformed into a broader war between Jews and Shiite Muslims, rooted in centuries of conflict. There had been hope that the leaders of Israel and Iran would avoid direct confrontation, recognizing the massive regional repercussions, and that the fighting would remain limited to their proxies. However, recent missile attacks by Iran on Israel have raised fears that both countries are preparing for an all-out war.

    While Israel and Iran do not share a direct border, the conflict would likely involve air strikes, with both sides seeking maximum destruction. Such a war would likely be more devastating than previous Israel-Arab wars. It is fair to say the Islamic Republic of Iran is at greater risk, as Israel has demonstrated its ability to eliminate enemies, even from a distance, through strategically planned operations. By engaging in direct conflict, Iran’s Islamic Republic is digging its own grave, much like Hamas did.

    Israel, it seems, had been waiting for the right moment – perhaps even wanting a provocation from Hamas, one that would justify its long-standing desire to eliminate the group. When Hamas launched its attack, with its sheer scale and brazen style, it gave Israel the pretext to escalate its response to a new and more intense level. Around this time last year, Israel was in a precarious position. The nation’s political landscape was fractured, with deep divisions tearing at the fabric of its government. Protests rippled across the country, aimed squarely at its leaders. Internationally, too, Israel was grappling with a diminished standing as Saudi Arabia emerged as a rising regional power, frequently outpacing Israel in garnering the favor of the United States. Sensing an opportunity, Hamas sought to capitalize on Israel’s weakened position, launching the terrorist attack on October 7th. But what was likely intended to further destabilize Israel instead offered the nation an opportunity to unite and strike back with renewed force.

    Now, nearly a year later, Israel is in a position of triumph. They have regained their place at the center of international politics, reaffirming their status as the United States top ally in the region. Domestically, they are more unified despite earlier divisions, and they have successfully eliminated key leaders of their enemies. Hamas and Hezbollah lost their top figures, Ismael Haniyeh and Hassan Nasrallah, while these leaders remain in hiding. Israel’s military success, along with its strategic use of information warfare via the internet, has garnered global support in an unprecedented way.

    However, the real challenge for Israel comes from the Islamic Republic of Iran, whose theocratic government believes that eliminating Israel is their duty. Iran doesn’t intervene directly but leads the clashes through proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah. Iran has previously launched missiles in solidarity with its suffering proxies, responding to the humiliation faced from Israel, but these attempts failed. Meanwhile, Israel, which takes every step more cunningly in this war, is waiting for a motive for a direct strike on Iran.

    Recently, on October 1st, a day before the Jewish New Year and the International Day of Non-Violence, Iran launched another missile barrage on Israel and supported an attack by Hamas. While the success rate was low, it stunned both Israel and the world. Iran may feel it succeeded in demonstrating its capabilities to the international community, but in reality, it has given Israel the opportunity to increase pressure and mount further attacks on Iran, much like how Hamas’s actions led Israel to invade Gaza. Israel can now present itself as being targeted by Iran, positioning its retaliatory actions as necessary for its self-defense.

    The fear of an all-out war or escalation between Israel and Iran and their respective allies is at an all-time high. Iran’s recent actions are indicative of its frustration. The Islamic Republic’s most significant leverage is its role as the protector of Islam, and any questioning of that role could result in a loss of grip on power. Should Iran lose this grip, it could lead to the downfall of Hamas, Hezbollah, and many other organizations backed by Iran, making it imperative for the regime to demonstrate strength to the world. However, this situation now provides Israel with a license to target even Tehran. Israel possesses an almost insurmountable advantage over Iran in long-distance aerial attacks, advanced technology, and espionage. 

    Many believe that the Islamic Republic of Iran, with its diverse ethnic backgrounds and internal cultural divisions, presents a vulnerable target for Israeli intelligence, which could weaken the country strategically before a full-scale war ever becomes necessary. Through carefully planned moves, Israel could potentially destabilize Iran, reducing the need for a large-scale conflict. Nevertheless, it is clear that the Islamic Republic of Iran is now a key target for Israel. 

  • Japan confirmed Shigeru Ishiba as the new prime minister

    Japan confirmed Shigeru Ishiba as the new prime minister

    Japan’s parliament on Tuesday elected Shigeru Ishiba, the newly appointed leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), as the country’s next prime minister. His appointment will be formalized in traditional ceremonies at the Imperial Palace, where the emperor will officially confirm Ishiba and his newly assembled cabinet. In reorganizing the cabinet inherited from Fumio Kishida, Ishiba introduced significant changes, forming a 19-member team with only two women. Yoko Kamikawa, the outgoing foreign minister and one of five women in the previous administration, was replaced by former defense minister Takeshi Iwaya. Katsunobu Kato, who played a key role as health minister during the COVID-19 pandemic, was appointed finance minister, while Gen Nakatani took on the defense portfolio.

    As anticipated, Ishiba also announced a snap election for October 27, just a month after assuming office and a full year ahead of the scheduled date, seeking a fresh mandate for his government.

    Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has selected Shigeru Ishiba to succeed Fumio Kishida as prime minister, following an internal vote on September 27. Ishiba, a 67-year-old veteran moderate and former defense minister, secured the position by defeating his right-wing rival, Sanae Takaichi, with a vote of 215 to 194. Takaichi had aimed to become Japan’s first female prime minister.

    Ishiba’s victory is seen as an opportunity to harness his broad appeal among voters to rejuvenate the party after months of scandal and internal discord. As Japan’s new prime minister, he will face a host of challenges across multiple fronts. To succeed, Ishiba and his team must distance themselves from the controversies of the Kishida administration and present the public with a fresh agenda and new promises.

    The leadership contest was set in motion after outgoing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced he would not seek re-election as LDP president, following a series of damaging fundraising scandals and a sharp decline in approval ratings. Citing the need for fresh leadership after a challenging period for the party, Kishida emphasized that his successor would need to lead a renewed LDP.

    Ishiba expressed his confidence in restoring trust in the party and outlined his commitment to protecting Japan, its local communities, its laws, and its people once the election was concluded.

    Now, tasked with revitalizing the party, Ishiba faces the challenge of addressing public frustration over rising living costs, a faltering economy, and the pressing issue of a shrinking and aging population. At the same time, he must navigate a volatile regional security environment, marked by an increasingly assertive China and the looming threat of a potentially nuclear-armed North Korea.

    As a defense expert with a personal interest in building models of warplanes and ships, Ishiba has proposed the creation of an Asian version of NATO and is a strong advocate for Taiwan. He is widely regarded as a fitting leader for the region’s military buildup under the United States’ strategic framework. Additionally, Ishiba has called for the establishment of a disaster-management agency, recognizing the need for more robust preparedness in a country frequently hit by powerful earthquakes and typhoons.

    Ishiba is known for his distinct views, often diverging from those of prominent party figures. Unlike most of his peers, he is the only one among the nine LDP presidential candidates to advocate for a post-Fukushima shift from nuclear power to renewable energy. He also backs legislation that would allow women to ascend to the Chrysanthemum Throne, a stance that many within the LDP oppose. Additionally, Ishiba has criticized the party’s resistance to public demands for reforms, such as permitting married couples to use separate surnames. Economically, he seeks to raise wages and supports exempting certain essentials from the 10% consumption tax to alleviate the burden on lower-income households.

    Shigeru Ishiba’s ambition to lead Japan has long been clear, and now, after securing the prime ministership, the veteran MP is finally set to achieve that goal on his fifth attempt. A former defense minister who entered parliament in 1986 following a brief career in banking, Ishiba was previously overshadowed by Fumio Kishida. Yet, he has remained a steady figure in Japanese politics, regularly appearing in the media and engaging with the public through social media and his YouTube channel, where the married father of two daughters discusses a wide array of topics—from Japan’s declining birthrate to his fondness for ramen—with over 16,000 followers.

    Known for his calm demeanor coupled with strong leadership, Ishiba commands considerable support as he prepares to lead the nation. That confidence extends to the upcoming snap election, where he believes he can secure the public mandate to continue his leadership.

  • Why Is South Asia So Involved in the Israel-Palestine Conflict?

    Why Is South Asia So Involved in the Israel-Palestine Conflict?

    There are countless problems to be fixed in the poor South Asian countries, including India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Maldives, and Nepal. Even though they have different positions and perspectives, they all struggle with poor living conditions, lack of employment, corruption, political dynasties, and more. While these issues dominate the daily lives of their populations, they are increasingly focused on a different concern: the Israel-Palestine conflict, which they seem to adopt as their own. In India, society is divided between pro-Israel and pro-Palestine supporters, and it has become a heated topic in Pakistan, where pro-Israel sentiment is almost unthinkable, but people have taken to the streets in support of Palestine. On September 29, pro-Hezbollah protesters clashed with police in the streets of Karachi, Pakistan’s largest city, after demonstrators attempted to reach the U.S. Consulate. The police fired tear gas as protesters threw stones and attempted to breach barriers. A similar wave of unrest is also rising in Bangladesh. Why? Why are these countries so deeply involved in this conflict?

    The answer is clear and specific: religion. South Asia is deeply intertwined with religion. Both the population and administration are heavily influenced by religious beliefs. The region, which is the birthplace of prominent religions like Hinduism, Buddhism, Jainism, and Sikhism, is also home to around 600 million Muslims. Clashes between followers of Indian religions and Islam, as well as intra-Islamic conflicts, are common in these countries. Since Palestine is an emotional issue for Muslims globally, it has always featured prominently in South Asian society and politics. The Islamic countries in the region—Pakistan, Bangladesh, and the Maldives – harbor strong animosity toward Israel. Every incident in Gaza and the West Bank brings people to the streets, sparking anti-Israel protests. Calls for tougher actions by their governments against Israel, as well as protests against Western embassies and consulates, are common in these nations. Fundamentalist and terrorist groups unite in their anti-Israel stance, advocating for the boycott of Israeli products. Politicians in these countries are often reluctant to engage with Israeli officials because, regardless of their achievements, they risk being labeled as anti-religious or anti-national. The ongoing events in Gaza and Lebanon have further fueled hatred towards Israel among the population. Many Pakistanis believe that, as a nuclear power, Pakistan could do more to support groups fighting the holy war against Israel by supplying weapons, and they are willing to join the fight. A similar sentiment prevails in Bangladesh. Many believe that if the current conflict escalates into regional wars, people from Pakistan and Bangladesh, who are largely poor, unemployed, but deeply religious, could be recruited by these groups.

    In India, the situation is more complex. The socialist, communist, and Islamist parties, which rely on the votes of the more than 15 million-strong Muslim population, have consistently raised the Israel-Palestine issue in the public sphere. The Indian National Congress (INC), the grand old socialist party that led the government for most of independent India’s history, supported the two-state solution, recognizing both Israel and Palestine. However, the party and its government gave a clear preference to Palestine and its leaders, who were often celebrated as revolutionaries, with the Indian media also contributing to India’s pro-Palestine stance.

    However, when Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a Hindu nationalist party, came to power in 2014, the situation changed dramatically. While the government did not abandon the two-state solution, it shifted away from its pro-Palestine stance and gave more support to Israel. Modi, who developed a personal friendship with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, strengthened the relationship on a national level as well. Consequently, the Indian government became more aggressive in countering pro-Palestine narratives, promoting India’s historical ties with Jews, and pushing a more pro-Israel perspective.

    Cities in India that once saw massive rallies in solidarity with Palestine now witness almost no demonstrations for the cause. As the public became more educated about the Israel-Palestine conflict from its roots, many began to see Palestine as primarily an Islamist issue. As a result, Islamist organizations in India no longer receive the widespread public support they once did, causing significant disappointment among the country’s Muslim population

    This evolving landscape of distrust and fundamentalism has become another major concern in the region. South Asia has no direct connection to the Israel-Palestine conflict beyond religious ties, but it is now causing further divisions within societies, most visibly in India. India’s shifting stance towards Israel has generated significant discontent among its Islamic neighbors, causing their hatred for Israel to also evolve into hostility towards India. This is clearly evident in social media spaces, where Indian groups and those from neighboring Islamic countries are often in conflict. As always, this deepens the divisions within societies that are already fractured by religious views. Therefore, we can say that, aside from Israel and its immediate neighbors, South Asia is also heating up under the mounting tensions between Israel and Hezbollah.

  • Israel Aims to End the “Axis of Resistance”

    Israel Aims to End the “Axis of Resistance”

    Hamas lies in ruins, Hezbollah is in disarray, and the Houthis are increasingly under attack. Iran, the chief backer of these groups, has lost both its key strategist and its revered military leader to assassination. The so-called Axis of Resistance – formed as a Shia military coalition in solidarity with the Palestinian cause, with the goal of destroying the Jewish state and asserting Shia Islamic dominance – now faces an existential crisis. Following the unprecedented assault it suffered on October 7, Israel, with precise and methodical force, has embarked on a campaign to eliminate all remaining threats. Its multi-front offensive is not only altering the regional balance but driving this once formidable alliance to the brink of collapse.

    Israel remains resolute in its campaign, despite criticism from international media, political groups, and human rights organizations, as it continues to prioritize its security. The Israeli military presses forward, targeting key Hamas leaders, even those who believe they are safe outside Gaza, showing little regard for the ongoing hostage situation. However, the expansion of operations into Lebanon to target Hezbollah was less anticipated. Hezbollah presents a more geographically and strategically challenging position for Israel, as it operates from Lebanon with access to Iranian support and maintains a robust infrastructure, often blending into civilian populations.

    However, Israel’s intelligence apparatus, including Mossad, has delivered significant blows to Hezbollah, which could shatter the group’s confidence and operational strength. On September 17th and 18th, a coordinated electronic attack using pager bombs killed several Hezbollah operatives. There were also reports following the deaths of several high-ranking leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah, the group’s longtime commander, along with other key figures. Although Hezbollah denies it, Israel claims to have also killed Abu Ali Rida, Hezbollah’s last remaining senior military commander. Meanwhile, Israel continues to launch precise missile strikes against Hezbollah targets, including second-tier leaders and munitions, in contrast to Hezbollah’s less effective retaliatory fire.

    Beyond military action, Israel is reportedly attempting to strategically exploit divisions within Lebanon’s population, particularly among Christians, Sunni Muslims, and Shia Muslims who migrated from the south. Social discourse is filled with reflections on Lebanon’s rich history and its decline, attributed to the influx of this migrated population. Lebanese expatriates lament the country’s downfall, blaming these sectarian divisions, which further weaken Lebanon’s defenses against cross-border actions. This narrative helps to portray Israel’s actions as targeting Hezbollah, not Lebanon itself.

    Unlike in the past, Sunni Arab nations, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia, appear unwilling to intervene in Lebanon’s favor. Previously, they had united to fight against Israel in solidarity with Palestine. Interestingly, Saudi Arabia, a Sunni powerhouse, is likely content as Israel begins to target the Houthis in Yemen – another Iranian-backed faction that has fought against Saudi Arabia. The Houthis, who previously launched missiles at key Saudi targets and inflicted significant losses, have also attacked Israeli-linked ships and even launched missiles toward Israel, making them the next likely target of Israeli strikes. Israel has already initiated attacks on the Houthis, and, much like with Hezbollah, its approach appears calculated and deliberate.

    Iran-backed militias in Syria and Iraq, two collapsed countries due to civil war and foreign interests, are also expected to attack Israel in solidarity with Palestine as part of Iran’s axis of resistance. Although they are trained and supported by Tehran, they currently pose less of a direct threat to Israel. Israel will likely neutralize them with relative ease, as it has done with similar threats in the past.

    The leader of the axis of resistance, the Islamic Republic of Iran, is now facing its greatest setback. They are losing control over other states through their Shia military units due to Israel’s actions. And It is a humiliation for them, as Israel’s reach extends within borders to eliminate key leaders of these militant groups who seek refuge in Iran. No Iranian city is now beyond Israel’s reach, making the country increasingly vulnerable. Some even accuse Israel of orchestrating the killing of former president Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash. Israel is also reportedly working to destabilize the Islamic Republic through information warfare, posing a significant threat to the very existence of the regime.

    The Israel-Hamas conflict, often labeled by the media as the Israel-Palestine conflict, is increasingly being viewed as an Israel-Iran conflict. No Arab countries are showing interest in this situation, not even the official governments of Lebanon and Yemen. Iran and its proxies, known as the axis of resistance, are isolated and now feeling the full wrath of Israel.

  • Sri Lankan President to Hold Election for Communist Parliament

    Sri Lankan President to Hold Election for Communist Parliament

    As anticipated, Sri Lanka’s newly elected president, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, took decisive action on Tuesday, dissolving parliament and announcing a date for a general election. According to a government gazette notification, parliamentary elections are set for November 14, with the newly elected assembly convening on November 21. This move is not merely procedural; it is a fulfillment of a promise Dissanayake made during his campaign-to forge a new government.

    He is increasingly confident that the country’s prevailing disillusionment with traditional politics, coupled with the harsh realities of everyday life, may well fuel a rise in communist sentiment among the populace. By expediting the general election, he aims to broaden a voter base that garnered a mere 3% in the previous parliament election, which translated to only three seats out of 225 in parliament. For Dissanayake, the path forward hinges on establishing a legislative body that aligns with his leftist ideology, ensuring not just smooth governance but also a robust platform for policy-making in a time of profound change.

    Following Dissanayake’s swearing-in ceremony, Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena resigned, paving the way for Dissanayake to appoint a new prime minister and cabinet. The dissolution of parliament occurred just hours after Dissanayake swore in Harini Amarasuriya as the new interim prime minister, marking the first time in 24 years that a woman had led a Sri Lankan government. At 54, Amarasuriya, a university lecturer and activist, shares a similar background with Dissanayake and is also a member of his Marxist-leaning coalition party. With the communist party now at the helm, they find themselves in need of a functioning parliament.

    We cannot analyze the upcoming parliamentary election based on the results of the 2020 election, which followed the parliament under Mahinda Rajapaksa. The economic crisis and the mass protests in 2022, which ultimately forced Rajapaksa to flee the country, have fundamentally altered the political landscape of Sri Lanka. In the 2020 election, Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) achieved a resounding victory, winning 145 out of 225 seats amid allegations of malpractices. The opposition, contesting through various alliances, had little impact; Sajith Premadasa, the runner-up in the presidential race, led the Samagi Jana Balawegaya alliance and secured 55 seats. The Tamil National Alliance, representing the ethnic Tamil minority, emerged as another significant player with 10 seats, while Dissanayake’s National People’s Power coalition placed fourth. However, the political landscape in Sri Lanka has undergone a dramatic transformation over the past four years.

    It is more insightful to analyze the recent presidential election, in which the SLPP-despite winning a majority in the last parliamentary elections-nominated a candidate from the Rajapaksa family. Nirmal Rajapaksa managed to garner only 4% of the votes and was ousted in the first round, suggesting the party has lost public support. In contrast, Ranil Wickremesinghe, the former president, contested the election under the banner of the United National Party (UNP)-the country’s long standing political party-receiving 17% of the votes. If the UNP can convert this into parliamentary representation, it could signal a revival for a party that performed poorly in the last parliamentary elections.

    The presidential election indicates that the main contest in the upcoming parliamentary elections will likely be between Dissanayake’s National People’s Power and Premadasa’s Samagi Jana Balawegaya. Both candidates emerged as significant contenders, securing around 40% of the votes in the final round. Dissanayake and his coalition, riding a wave of popularity, may carry this momentum into the upcoming election, while Premadasa, with his established political base and broad support, remains a formidable opponent.

    Sri Lanka’s administrative system, a semi-presidential republic, stands apart from those of its neighboring countries, such as India and the United Kingdom. Instead, it draws parallels to the political structures of France and Portugal, where a president coexists with a prime minister and a cabinet, both of whom are accountable to the legislature. As the country approaches a pivotal parliamentary election, the stakes are particularly high.

    Should Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s National People’s Power (NPP) alliance secure a majority, it could usher in a transformative era, shifting the nation from its entrenched Sinhalese nationalist identity toward a left-leaning governance. However, if the NPP fails to achieve this goal, the potential for unrest looms large.

    The electorate in Sri Lanka is notably responsive to prevailing trends, and currently, the NPP appears to hold the advantage. This sentiment may signal a significant ideological shift for the island nation, suggesting that Sri Lanka’s political trajectory is poised to lean further to the left.