Category: Elections 2024

  • Sri Lanka’s Communist President Sworn In

    Sri Lanka’s Communist President Sworn In

    Anura Kumara Dissanayake, a Marxist leader who has emerged victorious in Sri Lanka’s presidential election, has been inaugurated as the nation’s new president. He steps into this role amid a landscape fraught with severe economic distress, dire living conditions, and intricate geopolitical challenges. For many, Dissanayake embodies the hopes of the common people, symbolizing a shift away from the entrenched political dynasties that have long been associated with corruption and mismanagement. The electorate’s decisive rejection of the old political elite, held culpable for the ongoing economic malaise, has paved the way for this momentous change. Dissanayake’s ascendance is not merely a political victory; it signifies a profound desire for accountability and renewal in a country yearning for stability and progress.

    The presidential election advanced to a runoff for the first time in the country’s history, as no candidate managed to secure the requisite 50% of the votes in the initial round. Anura Kumara Dissanayake and opposition leader Sajith Premadasa emerged as the frontrunners, yet neither could claim outright victory, highlighting the hard fought election. As the second-preference votes were counted, Premadasa gained some ground, but Dissanayake’s initial lead proved insurmountable. The final results revealed a significant margin, with Premadasa garnering only 32.76% of the vote, nearly 10% behind Dissanayake, who ultimately won by a commanding lead of over 1.2 million votes. Following the tally of second-choice votes, Dissanayake was declared the victor, marking a pivotal moment for the nation. In stark contrast, Ranil Wickremesinghe, who took office amid the economic turmoil of 2022 and implemented stringent austerity measures, languished in third place with a mere 17.27% of the vote. Meanwhile, a member of the ousted Rajapaksa family trailed far behind, finishing fourth with just 3%, a reflection of the electorate’s growing disenchantment with the Rajapaksa dynasty.

    Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s victory as the leader of the hardline leftist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and a prominent figure in the broader National People’s Power (NPP) coalition is widely regarded as a watershed moment for his party. In the 2019 presidential election, the NPP managed to secure a mere 3% of the vote, while the JVP currently holds only three seats in parliament. Historically, the JVP has been perceived as an unelectable fringe group, tarnished by its involvement in violent uprisings and targeted assassinations that claimed thousands of lives in the 1980s. The party has also faced multiple bans over the years, further entrenching its reputation as a radical outlier in Sri Lankan politics. Dissanayake’s ascent challenges these long-held perceptions, signaling a potential recalibration of the political landscape.

    Since the early 2020s, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) has steadily gained political momentum, driven by Sri Lanka’s deepening economic and political crisis. As the nation declared itself virtually bankrupt, a pervasive disillusionment with the entrenched political parties and leaders that had long held sway began to take root. Anura Kumara Dissanayake adeptly harnessed this growing discontent, dedicating the two years following the protests that ousted Rajapaksa to cultivating grassroots support. Under Dissanayake’s leadership, the National People’s Power (NPP) attracted a wave of new voters, championing an agenda of anti-corruption and transparency while toning down the JVP’s previously extreme Marxist rhetoric. In a deliberate effort to reshape the party’s image, Dissanayake sought to distance it from its violent past, publicly apologizing for the killings committed during earlier insurrections.

    In an election centered on the pressing need for economic recovery, Anura Kumara Dissanayake skillfully tapped into the anger and frustration that had fueled the Aragalaya protests. He wholeheartedly embraced the movement’s critique of the political elite, calling for an end to corruption and political patronage, while assuring the public that those responsible for past wrongdoings would be held accountable. Dissanayake went a step further by pledging to renegotiate the terms of the IMF deal, which many viewed as excessively punitive towards the country’s most vulnerable populations. This clear stance resonated deeply with the electorate, dispelling any lingering doubts and leading them to decisively cast their votes for Dissanayake as the next president.

    Dissanayake’s victory has ignited considerable concern in New Delhi, as the ascent of a pro-communist, pro-China leader in Colombo presents a formidable challenge for India. With Sri Lanka already burdened by significant debt to China, there are fears that Dissanayake may seek to bolster ties with Beijing, a move that could serve China’s strategic interests. Compounding these anxieties is the apprehension among the Tamil community in Sri Lanka, which endured a tragic genocide under the previous Rajapaksa regime. Many Tamils harbor doubts about Dissanayake’s stance, particularly given his prior support for military actions during the civil war. As the situation unfolds, any grievances faced by the Tamil community could pose additional complications for India, underscoring the intricate geopolitical dynamics at play in the region.

    However, political experts believe that Sri Lanka cannot progress without the support of its larger neighbor. They argue that Dissanayake’s brand of communism has been diluted by the need for practicality, suggesting he may ultimately seek to strengthen relationships with India. A strong partnership with India could enable Sri Lanka to effectively navigate its geopolitical landscape, and potentially lift the country out of its economic dilemma.

  • Can Modi and BJP Conquer Jammu and Kashmir?

    Can Modi and BJP Conquer Jammu and Kashmir?

    Jammu and Kashmir, India’s northernmost and predominantly Muslim territory, has long posed a challenge for the Indian government due to increased terrorist attacks and Islamist extremism. International media, which have consistently supported secession efforts in Kashmir, often celebrate each clash between extremists and the Indian military, thereby garnering overseas backing for these movements. However, for the Indian government and its people, Kashmir is an emotional issue, deeply rooted in history, and they are unwilling to give it up. While previous union governments in New Delhi granted Kashmir certain privileges and special status, partly in response to international pressure, the current Hindu nationalist government under Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has taken a different approach. They revoked Kashmir’s special constitutional status and made it a union territory to promote assimilation, sparking significant displeasure at the international level, particularly from Muslim-majority countries.

    It has long been the BJP’s goal to form a government single-handedly in the state, though the Muslim majority largely opposes them. Ten years ago, the BJP formed a coalition government with the PDP, a local party, but the alliance quickly collapsed due to internal disunity. The union government subsequently made Jammu and Kashmir a union territory with direct administration. Nevertheless, the BJP understands that securing a majority government in the state is crucial for making key decisions and avoiding court interventions. Having achieved seemingly impossible victories in other Indian states through well-engineered election strategies, the BJP is now fighting hard in the ongoing assembly elections.

    The BJP is confident this time, with several positive factors working in its favor, starting with the fact that the party is stronger now. In addition to securing the Hindu vote, it has made inroads among minority groups such as Sikhs, Buddhists, and even some Muslim factions. The party’s electoral performance has also improved significantly. In the last assembly election, the BJP’s best performance saw them winning 25 out of 87 seats. This time, with constituencies redrawn and the total number of seats increased to 90, the party needs 45 seats to secure a majority.

    The increase in seat numbers is expected to boost the BJP’s chances, as more seats have been added in the Hindu-majority Jammu region. Six additional seats were allocated to Jammu, while only one was added to the Kashmir region, bringing the total number of seats in Jammu to 37. If the BJP can secure over 30 seats in Jammu, they would only need 15 or fewer from Kashmir. For the BJP, it is relatively easy to garner support from independent candidates and smaller parties, and they also anticipate nominations from the Lieutenant Governor. The BJP has also found an opportunity in the division among the opposition. Although the Indian National Congress (INC) has joined forces with the National Conference (NC), Kashmir’s largest party, they have been unable to bring the influential JKPDP into the alliance, which is expected to split the vote.

    Another positive factor is the increasing tendency of people in Kashmir to move away from traditional political parties like the NC, JKPDP, and INC, and support independent candidates, as seen in recent elections. Improved security is also expected to benefit the BJP, as more people in the Kashmir Valley may feel safe enough to vote for the party, which they previously avoided due to fear and threats. Additionally, the BJP is optimistic about the impact of development projects and significant infrastructure investments across various sectors in the state.

    The BJP faces considerable challenges as well. First, the Islamist population in Jammu and Kashmir is determined to defeat BJP candidates by supporting any viable alternative. Defeating the BJP is their main objective. As a result, the BJP faces threats even in the Hindu-majority Jammu region. With major national parties, including the Indian National Congress (INC), BSP, and AAP, contesting in Jammu, they could potentially garner Hindu votes in conjunction with support from the Islamist vote, allowing them to win over the BJP. Any losses for the BJP in Jammu region could undermine its dream of securing a majority, especially if the INC attempts to unite all parties except the BJP to form a government.

    There are also internal issues. Local protests against candidates chosen by the central BJP leadership could lead to votes shifting toward the opposition. Additionally, the INC-NC alliance poses a significant threat to the BJP in the Kashmir region. If terrorist attacks increase near the polling dates, it could further damage the BJP’s chances.

    It’s clear that, without significant support from the Muslim population, the BJP is unlikely to secure a majority in Jammu and Kashmir. While the party has emphasized infrastructure development, security improvements, and welfare programs in the region, the core issue remains religion, as the Kashmir issue is deeply rooted in religious divisions. The BJP is countering this by consolidating non-Muslim votes and attempting to attract liberal and nationalist Muslim voters. If the BJP succeeds with this tactic, it could finally achieve a majority in Jammu and Kashmir. Otherwise, the result will likely follow the usual pattern of favoring coalition governments.

  • Sri Lanka Heads to Polls to Choose Next President

    Sri Lanka Heads to Polls to Choose Next President

    Sri Lanka is set to hold a crucial presidential election on Saturday, following years of political and economic turmoil that nearly brought the nation to its knees. While this lush, green island is often admired for its natural beauty, it is equally known for its entrenched political dynasties, favoritism, civil war, corruption, and destructive governance. Home to 23 million people, the Indian Ocean nation has endured widespread hunger, medical shortages, and unemployment during the worst economic crisis in its history. In response, a youth-led movement, known locally as the Aragalaya, emerged two years before and successfully ousted the authoritarian president Gotabaya Rajapaksa, bringing an end to his powerful family dynasty. Although two years have passed, improvements have been slow, and the country’s recovery remains incomplete.

    As Sri Lanka gears up to elect a new president on Saturday – the first election since Rajapaksa’s downfall – many believe the economic crisis continues to wreak havoc on daily life, and the optimism that once fueled the Aragalaya movement has largely diminished. Analysts highlight a pervasive disillusionment with traditional politics, suggesting that no single candidate is likely to achieve a decisive victory. However, Three frontrunners have emerged: the current president, Ranil Wickremesinghe, who took office following Rajapaksa’s departure; opposition leader Sajith Premadasa; and Anura Kumara Dissanayake, whose left-wing coalition has recently gained momentum.

    While the Aragalaya movement sparked hopes for change and a break from the corrupt dynastic politics that have long dominated Sri Lanka, many view Wickremesinghe as part of the old, crooked establishment. As an unelected president without a popular mandate or a parliamentary majority, he has relied heavily on the support of the Rajapaksas party to push through his policies. Under Wickremesinghe’s government, none of the Rajapaksas or their close associates have faced investigation or consequences, despite widespread accusations of embezzling state assets and committing human rights abuses. In a telling sign of how little has changed, Namal Rajapaksa, the nephew of former president Gotabaya Rajapaksa and one of those accused of corruption, is also running for president.

    Premadasa, leader of the opposition for the past five years, has built a reputation as a champion of the poor, running on a platform of generous welfare policies. However, for large sections of the electorate, the desire for a decisive break from the past has fueled a surge of support for a former outsider: left-wing leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake, head of the Marxist National People’s Power (NPP) coalition. His rallies have drawn large crowds, attracted by bold promises to hold those who looted Sri Lanka’s assets accountable and deliver deep systemic change, including an end to corruption – core demands of the Aragalaya. However, concerns remain over Dissanayake’s Marxist party, which led a bloody armed revolt in the 1980s using guerrilla tactics against its opponents, leaving a legacy that continues to cast suspicion over the party’s intentions.

    Sri Lanka, a nation that endured over 26 years of civil war and remains deeply divided along ethnic lines, has traditionally seen elections dominated by issues of race, religion, and conflict. However, this time, the election is primarily focused on the economy. Ranil Wickremesinghe, a six-time former prime minister who took over as president for the final two years of Rajapaksa’s term, is positioning himself as the candidate of economic stability. He has negotiated a $2.9 billion  bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), strengthened foreign currency reserves, and brought inflation under control.

    Though long queues at petrol stations have vanished and vital foreign imports have resumed, poverty levels have doubled in the past two years, now affecting 25% of the population. Wickremesinghe’s unpopular policies are widely blamed for worsening conditions, hitting the poorest hardest. Many have questioned the strict terms of the IMF loan, including high taxes and limited long-term debt relief, with some analysts criticizing Wickremesinghe for negotiating a flawed deal. However, many believe this election is just another performance by a well-connected political elite, designed to deceive the public.

  • Jordan Embraces Islamic Politics

    Jordan Embraces Islamic Politics

    Jordan, a constitutional monarchy known for suppressing political voices and its peculiar parliamentary voting system, held elections on Tuesday under a new electoral law to elect members of the lower house. These elections took place amid heightened political tensions due to Israel’s war on Gaza and a challenging economic environment marked by high unemployment – issues that were not fully addressed by the kingdom. As the results emerge, it appears that the country, which has long suppressed Islamic politics, is witnessing a resurgence of such influence. Jordan’s Islamist opposition party has topped the parliamentary elections, although it fell short of securing a majority, according to official results.

    The Islamic Action Front (IAF), the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan, secured 31 out of 138 seats in the Parliament, tripling its representation in the House of Representatives, according to the country’s election commission on Wednesday. This result is historic for the Islamists, marking their largest representation since 1989, when they won 22 of the 80 parliamentary seats. In the previous Parliament, elected in 2020, the IAF held 10 seats, and in the 2016 legislature, they had 16. The election results are seen as reflecting a broad desire for change among voters, many of whom were not necessarily Islamists but were frustrated with the old political order and wanted a shift. The Muslim Brotherhood, which combines Islamic values with democratic principles, gained influence during the Arab Spring and operates as a transnational Sunni Islamic organization. However, it is labeled a terrorist group in countries such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Russia. Its growing role in Jordan’s political scene could lead to friction with the Kingdom, which is wary of closer ties with Israel.

    During the ongoing war, Jordan has sought to navigate a delicate political balance by maintaining diplomatic relations with Israel and intervening in Iran’s retaliatory attack in April, when it shot down missiles that flew over its territory. This position has sparked considerable anger among many Jordanians, particularly those who are descendants of Palestinians displaced during the Nakba and the 1967 war. Official results released on Wednesday reflect this frustration, showing a boost in support for political factions critical of Israel’s actions in Gaza.

    In Jordan, the King exerts substantial influence over the country’s governance. He has the power to sign, execute, or veto laws, as well as to suspend or dissolve Parliament and alter the length of its sessions. Despite attempts to improve the democratic process following the Arab Spring and waves of protests, Jordan’s political system remains highly centralized. The 2022 electoral law was designed to bolster the role of political parties, but the Parliament is expected to continue being dominated by tribal and pro-government factions. This new law introduces a significant change by allocating 41 seats to over 30 licensed, predominantly pro-government parties. Jordan’s voting system still favors sparsely populated tribal and provincial regions over densely populated urban areas, where Jordanians of Palestinian descent – often supporters of Islamist groups – are concentrated. Although more than two-thirds of Jordanians reside in cities, these areas are allocated less than a third of the parliamentary seats.

    Recent electoral reforms have lowered the candidacy age from 30 to 25 and implemented a mixed proportional representation system for the 138-seat Parliament. Voters now cast two ballots: one for lists in 18 local districts competing for 97 seats, and another for political parties in the national district, which has 41 seats. The system also includes 12 reserved seats for Christian, Circassian, and Chechen minorities, as well as 18 seats for women. Future elections are anticipated to increase the proportion of seats in the national district, potentially facilitating the formation of parliamentary coalitions.

    Many Jordanians believe that a passive Parliament filled with pro-government deputies is ineffective in driving change. However, this election is significant as it represents a modest step in the democratization process initiated after long protests. Turnout among Jordan’s 5.1 million eligible voters in Tuesday’s election was low, at 32.25%, a slight increase from 29% in the 2020 election. Despite this, the election is pivotal in Jordan’s history, as it will shape the country’s future democratization efforts, its stance on Palestine, and potentially revive the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood in the Arab world. Thus, Jordan’s election holds considerable significance for the region.

  • Is Azerbaijan following Russia’s lead in conducting sham elections?

    Is Azerbaijan following Russia’s lead in conducting sham elections?

    A superhero, a hyper-patriotic party, ineffective opposition, and an election controlled entirely by the ruling party. No, this isn’t about Russia – this time, it’s Azerbaijan. And the similarities are not superficial; they are very real. It appears that Azerbaijan, the oil-rich Caucasian country and a close ally of Russia, is replicating Putin’s tactics for maintaining power. Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan’s president and current ‘superhero,’ along with his New Azerbaijan Party, a nationalist conservative force and close friend of Putin’s party, secured victory in Azerbaijan’s snap parliamentary elections. These elections, opposed by the weakened opposition and criticized by election watchdogs, were widely labeled a sham.

    Parliamentary elections were held in Azerbaijan on 1 September 2024, two months earlier than the originally scheduled date of November 2024. Since the Republic of Azerbaijan’s first parliamentary election in 1995-96, the New Azerbaijan Party has never lost an election and has consistently maintained power. And this time,  the New Azerbaijan Party won a majority of 68 out of 125 seats. This outcome was expected, as there were limited alternatives for voters. The voter turnout, below 40%, reflects a lack of public interest in the election process. Campaigning was minimal and largely ceremonial, with the leading opposition, the Azerbaijan Popular Front Party, opting not to participate.

    Although the election followed the model of Russia’s sham elections and its predictable outcome offered little hope for change, it still made headlines, particularly as it marked the first elections since Azerbaijan regained control of the Armenian separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh following the war in September 2023. Constituencies in the reclaimed region also participated in the vote. Aliyev, credited with overseeing the annexation of Nagorno-Karabakh, and his party were expected to secure support. However, the opposition appeared to distrust the electoral process. Echoing Russia, reports of irregularities surfaced, further reinforcing the impression of imitation. The leading opposition party, the Azerbaijan Popular Front Party, boycotted the election for the seventh consecutive time.  Musavat, the oldest existing political party in Azerbaijan, rejected the legitimacy of the new parliament, demanding another vote and accusing the election of widespread violations, including multiple voting, ballot stuffing, and undue pressure on observers. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) also condemned the election, stating that it fell short of democratic standards well short of democratic standards. OSCE monitors reported that the campaign was barely visible and described the election as a contest devoid of competition.

    The 125 members of Azerbaijan’s National Assembly are elected from single-member constituencies using the first-past-the-post system. Although the election results faced accusations of manipulation, the ruling New Azerbaijan Party of President Aliyev secured a narrow majority, winning 68 out of 125 seats. With the main opposition party boycotting the election, the second-largest bloc consisted of independents, who won in total 44 seats. The remaining seats were claimed by smaller parties. The official voter turnout was reported at 37.3%.

    Influence from superpower neighbors is not uncommon, but it is striking how many former Soviet states have adopted similar administrative practices. Azerbaijan’s approach, in particular, exemplifies a model that closely mirrors Russia’s. This pattern often coincides with a troubling array of malpractices and mutual support among these nations. Such connections among these deceitful politicians are creating a power conglomerate that extends across borders and ultimately humiliates and mocks democracy.

  • Jammu and Kashmir Set to Elect Assembly After 10 Years

    Jammu and Kashmir Set to Elect Assembly After 10 Years

    Jammu and Kashmir, one of three Muslim-majority union territories in India along with Lakshadweep and Ladakh, has long been a focus of global interest. Both Pakistan and China, along with several Western diplomats, have expressed a desire to annex the territory to Pakistan, and Pakistan has conducted several wars and militant operations to achieve this goal. The global Muslim population has repeatedly raised the Kashmir issue, emphasizing Muslim solidarity worldwide and accusing the Indian government of suppressing Islamic rights. Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister of India, has taken a particular interest in the region and has increased central government control over Kashmir during his tenure. Jammu and Kashmir, which was previously granted special constitutional status and a separate constitution with elements such as Sharia law and its own flag, removed these privileges under Modi’s government. The dissolution of the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly and the removal of Article 370 from the Indian Constitution by parliament ended the region’s special status. Elections in the union territory are now scheduled to take place in four stages from September to October, marking the first time since 2014. Given the region’s significant Islamist extremist threats, the election poses a challenge for India, as  terrorists may threaten potential voters.

    Jammu and Kashmir, a former state and now a union territory, has deep historical ties with India and was part of various great kingdoms that ruled the Indian subcontinent. Over the years, it became a Muslim-majority region, but it still has a significant Hindu, Sikh, and Buddhist population that strongly supports Indian rule, along with Shia and Ahmadiyya communities. The region is now divided into four parts: the Kashmir Valley, which has a Sunni majority and faces the most extremist threats to elections; Jammu, which has a considerable Sikh and Hindu population; the territory under Pakistan’s control, annexed during the 1950s war – India does not recognize this occupation, and seats for it remain vacant in the assembly; and Ladakh, which was once part of Jammu and Kashmir but is now a separate union territory.

    The Jammu and Kashmir union territory elections are set to occur in three phases: Phase I on 18 September 2024, Phase II on 25 September 2024, and Phase III on 1 October 2024. Results will be announced on 4 October 2024. These elections will choose the 90 members of the Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly. Four major political parties, along with several smaller contenders, are vying for the assembly seats.

    In the complex political landscape of Jammu, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which holds the reins of power in India, stands out as the preeminent force. In the most recent assembly elections, the BJP clinched 25 of the 87 available seats, reinforcing its dominance. The party further solidified its position by capturing two of the five Lok Sabha constituencies in the recent general election, underscoring its significant influence in the region. The BJP is focusing on major infrastructure projects funded by the central government, including new railway lines, roads, hospitals, and other developments that were previously unavailable in the region. They are appealing to voters who felt disadvantaged under the previous special constitutional status, which was accused of favoring certain families and religious groups, and they are capitalizing on the rise of nationalism in the state. However, as the party lacks strong support in Muslim-majority areas, the BJP has been accused of backing smaller pro-Muslim parties in certain regions. The BJP aims to surpass the 45-seat mark for a majority in the 90-member assembly, with some seats expected to come from these smaller parties.

    The Indian National Congress, the main opposition party in the Indian parliament, is contesting the election in alliance with the region’s largest state-level party, the National Conference, and the Communist Party of India (Marxist). This alliance has a strong presence in both the Kashmir Valley and Jammu and is demanding the restoration of statehood and special status for the region. In the last election, all parties in this alliance contested individually, collectively winning 28 seats, which was more than the BJP’s tally. Another significant party is the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which secured the most seats in the last assembly election with 28 seats. They are expected to contest individually this time. Other national parties, including the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), are also participating in this election, along with numerous state parties and independent candidates, who also play a crucial role in forming the government in the state.

    The upcoming election is a crucial juncture for the state. If the BJP wins, they will grant statehood but not restore special status. If the BJP loses, it is likely that other parties will join forces to demand special status. Additionally, if the BJP forms a  coalition government, there might be pressure to address this demand. The election will also attract international attention, especially from Pakistan. As Jammu and Kashmir moves towards greater democracy and development, it could impact the already troubled state of Pakistan and its part of Kashmir, leading to serious impact in the region. Therefore, the assembly election of Jammu and Kashmir is not only important for the union territory but also for the entire South Asia.

  • How Humiliating is Syria’s Parliamentary Election?

    How Humiliating is Syria’s Parliamentary Election?

    The Syrian Arab Republic, a country under the dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad, is in ruins. Assad, who has been president since 2000, does not appear to be stepping down anytime soon. Despite his hunger for power having destroyed the country, split it apart, and caused people to be exiled,  he remains in control. Even though he is authoritarian, he loves elections. He always conducts elections on time, but makes sure it favors him. Last Monday, he conducted a parliamentary election for the 250 seats. Undoubtedly, the election is designed to favor Assad’s party, the Ba’ath Party, which has been in power since the 1963 coup d’état. They even hold reservations, making it easy to gain a majority. Opposition parties in parliament do not have much influence and are mostly aligned with Assad. The real opposition is at real war with the Assad regime. Election results have not come out yet, as time is needed for manipulation, because the new parliament has the duty of amending the constitution to remove the presidential term limit, favoring Assad to rule as long as he wishes.

    This time, 1,516 candidates approved by the government are competing for the 250 seats in the People’s Assembly. Approximately 8,151 polling stations were set up in 15 voting districts within government-held areas. The competitive part of the Syrian election process occurs before the polling starts, when a voted-on list of Baath Party candidates is sent to the party’s central command, allowing them to run in the election. The elections are essentially decided once the Baath Party list is finalized. Once the list is completed, we can check the results, and you will see that almost all of them will be in Parliament. To the public’s advantage, the number of incumbents who made the final list this year was relatively low, suggesting a reshuffling within the Baath Party. Western countries and Assad’s critics have no doubts that the polling in government-held areas in Syria is neither free nor fair.

    While Syria faces many war-driven issues, the economy is the main topic of discussion among the public during the election. The poll took place as Syria’s economy continues to deteriorate after years of conflict, Western-led sanctions, and dwindling aid due to donor fatigue. The value of the national currency against the dollar has reached new lows, sparking food and fuel inflation and making the country one of the toughest places to live on earth. Almost a year ago, the government partially rolled back its subsidy program to save the economy, while the government doubled public sector and pension wages to keep officials and influential civil servants on their side. In the Druze-majority southern province of Sweida, anti-government protests have occurred regularly for nearly a year due to economic misery, leading many to call for a boycott of the polls. Nevertheless, candidates primarily emphasized general slogans such as national unity and prosperity.

    After casting his ballot in Damascus, Assad spoke to reporters about the vote and how parliament could serve as a platform for national dialogue in the country. This remark could be marked as one of the most ironic comments of the year. This vote marks the fourth in Syria since mass anti-government protests in 2011, originally a call for democracy that escalated into an ongoing civil war. Syria’s 2024 parliamentary election excludes rebel-held northwest Syria and the country’s northeast, which is under the control of the U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. Notably, unlike presidential elections, millions of diaspora Syrians, whose numbers have significantly increased since the civil war, are not eligible to vote for legislators, ensuring that only those favorable to the regime will cast votes. Therefore, it’s an election merely for the sake of having one. Congratulations, Assad; we don’t even need the results to be published.

  • Iran Election Faces Humiliation with Record Low Turnout, Heads for Runoff

    Iran Election Faces Humiliation with Record Low Turnout, Heads for Runoff

    Due to widespread discontent with the Islamic Republic and its highly scrutinized presidential candidates, around 60% of eligible voters in Iran chose not to participate in the important presidential election. Following the unexpected death of Ebrahim Raisi, the election was conducted last Friday to meet the constitutional requirement to fill the presidential vacancy within 50 days. This tight controlled Iran election featured only candidates approved through tight monitoring, and the campaigns did not address the people’s real problems, resulting in low voter participation. None of the six candidates secured 50% of the total votes needed, leading to a runoff election in a week. In the first round, reformist lawmaker Masoud Pezeshkian secured a narrow lead over the hardline former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili. Parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, initially considered the likeliest victor by Western media, finished third and was eliminated before the second round.

    Turnout ended up at 39.93%, a record low for an Iranian election since the revolution in 1979. The last time in 2021, it was 48.48%. The scale of the boycott from various sectors is a rebuff for the regime, which had repeatedly urged Iranians to show their commitment to the Islamic regime by voting. Reluctance to vote in regime-controlled elections has been visible in previous times too, but this marks the lowest. Before this, the lowest turnout was in the 2001 presidential election, which was officially recorded at 48.8% with 24.9 million voting.

    Six candidates, including five conservatives, two of whom withdrew on the eve of the poll, were approved to stand by the Guardian Council, an unelected constitutional watchdog whose members are appointed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, both directly and indirectly. The initial results of the first round of the Iran election showed Masoud Pezeshkian, 69, a reformist independent and former Minister of Health and Medical Education, receiving 10.45 million votes, which is 44.36% of the total votes cast. Saeed Jalili, 58, a principlist, Member of the Expediency Discernment Council, and Chief Nuclear Negotiator, contested as an independent and garnered 9.47 million votes, which is 40.35% of the total. Another conservative, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the current Speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, contested under the label of the prominent Progress and Justice Population of Islamic Iran party and garnered only 3.38 million votes. A fourth candidate, Mostafa Pourmohammadi, a conservative and former Justice Minister who ran a wildcard campaign under the label of the Combatant Clergy Association, won only 206,000 votes. Out of a total of 24,735,185 votes cast, 1,056,159 ballots were deemed spoiled. A runoff on Friday seems inevitable and will offer a clear ideological choice between Pezeshkian and Jalili.

    Pezeshkian has utilized video town hall meetings to engage with students and pledged not to crack down on those who refuse to wear the hijab. However, at the core of his campaign is the belief that Iran’s economic challenges will persist unless it engages with Western economies, including through renegotiating the Iranian nuclear deal. With active support from former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, Pezeshkian has criticized hardliners for leading Iran into an ideological, cultural, and economic dead end. Unless Pezeshkian can mobilize more voters in the runoff by demonstrating a viable path to victory and promising real change for Iran, the reformist is likely to lose. Most, but not all, of Ghalibaf’s votes are expected to shift to Jalili. The rivalry between Ghalibaf and Jalili, both personal and ideological, was sufficient to prevent them from forming a pre-election alliance. Other conservative votes scattered among different candidates will also bolster Jalili’s position. Many believe that even though the second round will directly pit reformists against conservatives, it is uncertain whether those opposed to the regime will turn out to vote, potentially closing the door on Pezeshkian’s hopes.

    While about 60% of voters boycotted the Iran election, the message is clear: people don’t like these kinds of gimmick elections. The decision to allow a reformist to stand in the ongoing Iran election was seen as a concession by the regime, which needed a more competitive election to try to lure voters to the polls. The second round between Pezeshkian and Jalili will be interesting to watch, not only to see who will win but also to observe if the voter turnout will increase. A democracy or republic only succeeds if the people participate in it, and Iran cannot continue to conduct these kinds of elections without the participation of the majority. And it will be interesting to see if people in deep conflict with the regime will come to the polling booth to vote for the reformist.

  • Mongolia Chooses Ruling Party Despite Dire Economic Realities

    Mongolia Chooses Ruling Party Despite Dire Economic Realities

    Even though there are many factors against voting for the ruling party and prime minister, Mongolia allowed the ruling Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) and Prime Minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene to continue. Prime Minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene declared an early victory, but the parliamentary majority of the ruling party significantly diminished, reflecting deepening public anger over corruption and the state of the economy. An interesting aspect of the election result is that the opposition gained ground and more parties gained representation in parliament. Regardless of the outcome, it should be considered as a victory for Mongolian democracy, which conducted a democratic election while situated between highly authoritarian Russia and China. Additionally, millions of Mongolians turned out to elect 126 members of the State Great Khural, the country’s unicameral parliament.

    According to the latest reports from the Mongolia’s General Election Commission, the Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) has secured a majority with 68 seats, four more than needed, and garnered 35.01% of the votes. This marks a significant drop from their 45% in the 2020 election, where they held 62 out of 76 seats. The main opposition Democratic Party, led by Luvsannyamyn Gantömör, won 42 seats and 30% of the votes, a notable increase from their 11 seats and 24% previously. This represents a win for the opposition as well. The minor anti-corruption HUN party secured eight seats and 10% of the votes, while smaller parties collectively won eight seats. These results, the first under a new electoral system where Mongolians vote for both proportional lists and individual representatives in large districts, mean that the MPP will govern with a significantly reduced majority. The new parliament will see the MPP holding 54% of the seats, compared to around 80% in 2020.

    The MPP, successor to Mongolia’s communist party that held power for almost 70 years, remains popular, especially among rural, conservative, and older voters, maintaining a vast, nationwide campaign infrastructure. Many critics liken the country to other post-Soviet Union nations in the region with authoritarian tendencies influenced by Russia and China. Therefore, they believe the authorities will try to consolidate power to maintain control. Analysts had anticipated the MPP to maintain the majority it has held since 2016 and govern for another four years. They attribute much of the party’s success to a coal mining boom that fueled double-digit growth, improved standards of living, and a formidable party machine. However, the campaign was overshadowed by widespread public frustration over endemic corruption, high living costs, and limited opportunities for the young majority. There is also a prevalent belief that profits from the coal mining boom are hoarded by a wealthy elite, leading to frequent protests. The election results reflect these sentiments.

    According to Bayarlkhagva Munkhnaran, an analyst and former official with the National Security Council of Mongolia, “This election result definitely represents a rebuke to the MPP and its leadership”. He added that winning 68 seats is “Barely a face-saver, and any subsequent government will be weak but much more democratic”. Despite the MPP’s victory in the election, many consider it a loss for the party within the framework of Mongolian politics. This sentiment was noted by Democratic Party leader Gantumur Luvsannyam, who stated, “Through this election, people have evaluated the past policy mistakes of the ruling party”.

    It was the first election following an important constitutional change and new electoral law. On Friday, people across the vast, sparsely populated nation of 3.4 million voted. Regardless of the outcome, the election is a win for democracy, especially considering the challenges it faces due to its location between authoritarian countries. The streets of Ulaanbaatar, home to almost half of Mongolia’s population, were adorned with colorful campaign posters featuring candidates across the political spectrum, including populist businessmen, nationalists, environmentalists, and socialists, a rarity in the region. The Prime Minister upheld democracy, thanking even those who did not vote for his party. He remarked that for the first time, five to six parties had been elected to parliament, marking a “New page” in Mongolian democracy. He added, “The essence of democracy lies in having diverse and contrasting opinions. Your criticisms will influence our actions”.

  • Tokyo Election Set Up with Women Candidates in the Spotlight

    Tokyo Election Set Up with Women Candidates in the Spotlight

    Tokyo, the capital of Japan, is not just another Asian city; it’s the most populous city in the world, with numerous institutes that influence the entire Asian economy. The city extends into a vast metropolis or prefecture, comprising around 40 million people who live densely, making it a city with a high cost of living and high rental rates, but a GDP that almost rivals that of the Netherlands. Tokyo is setting off the governor election on July 7, and campaigns kicked off last week. Interestingly, two women are the leading candidates in the upcoming Tokyo election, representing major parties in a highly male-dominated political landscape. The Tokyo election of 2024 is led by the incumbent Yuriko Koike, who has been in charge since 2016 and represents the governing conservative but named Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), has presented Renho Murata as the challenger. The Tokyo election is expected to be a proxy war between the country’s two main political parties.

    Koike, 71, has an impressive record in administration, guiding the city through the most challenging times of the COVID-19 pandemic. The city, severely hit by the pandemic, implemented lockdowns that included tight controls. Interestingly, she conducted the Summer Olympics during this challenging time. The prestigious Tokyo Olympics 2021 was a great success, even though she faced a lot of opposition to conducting the Olympics under such challenging conditions. Considering the obstacles faced, the Tokyo Olympics was one of the most successful events in recent years. These achievements make Koike, a former TV anchor first elected to the lower house of parliament in 1993, the frontrunner in the upcoming Tokyo election. She now owns her party, Tomin First, though receives strong support from the LDP, as well as from parties like Komeito and the Democratic Party for the People. There are no major allegations against her, despite a funding scandal involving her party and a dispute over her academic qualifications.

    Renho, the main challenger of Koike, represents center-left politics and, with the support of the opposition party, the CDP, is expected to give a tough fight to Koike in the Tokyo election. Renho, born to a Japanese mother and Taiwanese father, was also a television personality like Koike and a former swimsuit model. She entered politics as an upper house member in 2004 and became the first female leader of Japan’s biggest opposition party, the CDP, in 2016. She contested the presidential election as an independent, though with the support of the CDP and the Japanese Communist Party. Renho sparked a minor controversy when she became opposition leader in 2016 by revealing that she still held dual Japanese and Taiwanese nationality, despite earlier insisting that she had become a naturalized Japanese citizen in her teens. Japanese law requires individuals with dual nationality to choose one before they turn 22. Renho later renounced her Taiwanese citizenship.

    The demographic crisis is the biggest topic in the Tokyo election as well as in Japanese politics. Lowering fertility rates and connected issues, ranging from work-life balance to economic decline, have become heated topics in the Tokyo election. Nationwide, the fertility rate, or the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime, stands at 1.2 – significantly below the 2.07 needed to maintain a stable population. The situation in Tokyo is even more urgent, with its birth rate at 0.99, the lowest among Japan’s 47 prefectures. The frontrunners have clashed over their plans to raise the birth rate, with Koike promising lower rents for families and free daycare for married couples first children. Renho has said she would pressure companies to improve their employees work-life balance. She aims to make life in Tokyo more appealing and turn it into a destination for Japan’s young people seeking their ideal lifestyle. However, many people are demanding a clear blueprint for tackling these challenges before the July 7 vote.

    The 2024 Tokyo gubernatorial election will feature a total of 56 candidates from across the political spectrum. The previous election, held on July 5, 2020, resulted in the incumbent Yuriko Koike being re-elected for a second term in a landslide, increasing her share of the vote to 59.7%. This result was widely viewed as an endorsement of her handling of Tokyo’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, many believe that the 2020 election result was influenced by the pandemic situation and that Koike may not be able to repeat her victory this time. Additionally, the current political climate in the country is not favorable for the LDP. However, The 2024 election, led by two female candidates, is expected to draw significant interest not only from Japan but also from around the world.