Category: Opinion

  • Why is Free Kurdistan Not Happening?

    Why is Free Kurdistan Not Happening?

    Kurdistan, the homeland of the Kurds, remains unrecognized by the world and is confronted with an unprecedented threat to its survival. The autonomous region in Iraq, having established separate administrations, military structures, and a distinct identity, is actively advocating for complete statehood but finds itself in a state of limbo.

    As the United States’ closest ally in the region, with a majority Kurdish population, Kurdistan faces existential threats from neighboring countries that harbor a considerable Kurdish population antagonistic to their cause. Despite contemplating the immediate availability of statehood, the Kurds are indeed grappling with significant existential challenges. Various reasons contribute to the threats to the Kurds’ long standing aspiration for statehood, ranging from internal issues to concerns about the weakening of the American government.

    The original Kurdistan, also referred to as Greater Kurdistan, is a loosely defined geo-cultural region in West Asia where Kurds constitute a significant majority population, and the foundation of Kurdish culture, languages, and national identity is deeply rooted. Geographically, Kurdistan spans the northwestern Zagros and the eastern Taurus mountain ranges.

    Kurdistan is commonly divided into four regions: Northern Kurdistan (southeastern Turkey), Southern Kurdistan (northern Iraq), Eastern Kurdistan (northwestern Iran), and Western Kurdistan (northern Syria). Some interpretations extend its boundaries into parts of southern Transcaucasia. Different Kurdish nationalist groups advocate for either an independent nation-state covering these regions with a Kurdish majority or increased autonomy within existing national boundaries. The precise demarcation of the region remains a contentious issue, with certain maps exaggerating its scope.

    As of a 2016 estimate from the Kurdish Institute of Paris, Kurdistan’s total population is around 34.5 million, with Kurds constituting 86% of the population in Northern Kurdistan. The region also includes Arab, Turkish, Assyrian (Syriac), Armenian, and Azerbaijani minorities. Southern Kurdistan hosts Christian (Assyrian and Armenian) and Turkish (Turkmen) minorities. Kurds in Turkey, Iraq, and Iran have significant Caucasian populations that underwent Kurdification, adopting Kurdish as their primary language. Kurdish, part of the Indo-European language family except for the Semitic and Turkic languages around them, is a crucial component of Kurdish identity.

    Geographically, Kurdistan covers approximately 190,000 km² in Turkey, 125,000 km² in Iran, 65,000 km² in Iraq, and 12,000 km² in Syria, totaling around 392,000 km². Turkish Kurdistan encompasses a substantial area in the Eastern Anatolia Region and southeastern Anatolia of Turkey, with an estimated 6 to 8 million Kurds residing in the region.

    The term “Kurdistan” has historical origins, first documented in 11th-century Seljuk chronicles. From the 8th to the 19th centuries, a multitude of Kurdish dynasties, emirates, principalities, and chiefdoms emerged. In the 20th century, there were short-lived attempts to establish Kurdish entities, including the Kurdish state (1918–1919), Kingdom of Kurdistan (1921–1924), Red Kurdistan (1923–1929), Republic of Ararat (1927–1930), and Republic of Mahabad (1946).

    Iraqi Kurdistan, which has the most chance for getting statehood and recognition from the international bodies, obtained autonomous status through a 1970 agreement with the Iraqi government, solidified as the autonomous Kurdistan Region within the federal Iraqi republic in 2005. In Iran, there is a Kurdistan Province, though it lacks self-rule. Kurds involved in the Syrian Civil War successfully seized control of significant portions of northern Syria, establishing self-governing regions under the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (commonly known as Rojava), where they aspire to achieve autonomy within a federal Syria post-war.

    A 2010 report from the United States, predating the instability in Syria and Iraq as of 2014, predicted the potential existence of Kurdistan by the year 2030. The vulnerability of the Iraqi state, exacerbated by the 2014 Northern Iraq offensive by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, created an opening for Iraqi Kurdistan to pursue independence. Turkey, while historically opposing Kurdish autonomy in Turkey and Syria, shifted its stance toward acknowledging the possibility of an independent Kurdish state in Iraq.

    Turkey’s long standing fear has been that a Kurdish state in Northern Iraq would fuel and support Kurdish separatists in Turkish provinces, leading to strong opposition to Kurdish independence in Iraq. However, amidst the chaos following the US invasion of Iraq, Turkey began collaborating more closely with the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government. Despite this, the mere mention or expression of ‘Kurdistan’ in Turkey still carries the risk of detention and prosecution.

    The successful 2014 Northern Iraq offensive by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant further weakened the Iraqi state’s ability to exert power, providing the Kurds with a “golden opportunity” to enhance their independence and potentially declare an independent Kurdish state. The Islamic State’s hostility towards Turkey made Kurdistan strategically valuable to Turkey as a buffer state. In June 2014, a spokesman for Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party expressed Turkey’s readiness to accept an independent Kurdistan in northern Iraq.

    Kurdistan, endowed with abundant oil resources, has been actively engaging in economic cooperation and securing oil deals primarily with its volatile neighbor, Syria. Despite the complexities surrounding the Kurdish issue in Syria, significant oil contracts have been forged between Kurdistan and Syria. Additionally, Iran, which has recently taken a stronger stance against Kurds in the region, particularly following the Mahsini issue, has also established increased economic cooperation with Kurdistan.

    According to the Iranian Free Zones News Agency (Freena), Hojatollah Abdolmaleki disclosed the collaboration during a press conference at Iran’s exclusive exhibition in Sulaymaniyah, Kurdistan region. Abdolmaleki emphasized the pivotal role of the newly established free zone in fostering cooperation between Iran and Kurdistan. The opening ceremony of the exhibition saw the participation of senior officials from both sides, including Abdolmaleki, the secretary general of the Iran-Iraq Joint Chamber of Commerce, the Iranian envoy in Sulaymaniyah, and the head of the Union of Exporters and Importers of the Kurdistan Region.

    Despite several promises for statehood from the United States, Iraq, the United Nations, and occasionally from Turkey, the Kurds have faced numerous obstacles, particularly prolonged referendums driven by various reasons. Although they came close to achieving statehood in 2017, even their allies rejected the prospect. The Iraqi government has reclaimed territories once occupied by the Kurds, including areas with significant oil reserves. The collapse of oil revenues has left the Kurds grappling with serious financial challenges.

    In addition to Turkey, Iran has also intensified actions against the Kurds, further contributing to the Kurds’ predicament. A significant division exists within the Kurdish population, with the ruling KDP party leaning towards Iran’s support rather than aligning with the Iraqi federal government. The United States has a vested interest in the region, providing military aid and financial assistance, with a notable presence of administrators and officials in Erbil, the capital of Kurdistan. However, the inactive governance and increased Iranian intervention have posed challenges.

    Despite the current difficulties, a people with a long history of fighting for their identity and a homeland are likely to find a solution to their current problems. However, the extended decision-making process by the United States could jeopardize a key and reliable ally in the region, potentially leading to strategic consequences.

  • In the Year of the Dragon: Will Luck Shine on China Again After Tough Times?

    In the Year of the Dragon: Will Luck Shine on China Again After Tough Times?

    The excitement surrounding the world’s second-largest economy seems to have recently faded. Despite grappling with various challenges, including economic stagnation, declining birth rates, the relocation of manufacturing projects, and heightened tensions with the United States and India, China is entering the new year with aspirations of reclaiming its stature as a global superpower.

    As the Year of the Dragon commences, bringing a sense of renewal, even within the context of a communist nation, the Chinese people remain steadfast in their adherence to traditional beliefs and horoscopes. This year, traditionally associated with prosperity, holds considerable promise in the eyes of Chinese Culture. Nations following the Chinese zodiac or hosting substantial Overseas Chinese communities often experience a surge in birth rates during the Year of the Dragon. The belief that “Dragon babies” born during this time possess auspicious qualities contributing to improved life outcomes further bolsters the positive outlook.

    Similar to individuals, China eagerly anticipates the approaching year with aspirations for prosperity. The nation aims to liberate itself from the burdens of the pandemic and is prepared to introduce new initiatives, with a focus on revitalizing the Chinese economy and strengthening foreign relationships—an imperative agenda at this critical juncture.

    China strategically invests in various nations through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, but its trajectory is intricately tied to partnerships with Russia and India. The US and EU’s shift away from supporting China’s economic expansion is evident in the reconfiguration of financial flows. Collaborative efforts among these three nations are vital for development, and the future course of China will undoubtedly be shaped by coordinated measures to encourage increased cooperation.

    In contemporary times, China and Russia stand as exceptionally close allies, actively participating in extensive cooperation. This collaboration is strengthening, providing essential support to Russia in navigating the challenging landscape of tight Western sanctions. Additionally, China offers crucial political support amid ongoing Western resolutions concerning Ukraine. Despite their resilience in the face of Western pressure, both China and Russia exhibit a sense of economic unease when confronted with challenges such as losing access to Western markets, technologies, and investments. This constraint gradually impedes their ability to fully leverage their economic potential.

    Putin is heading into the presidential election in March, with the Ukraine war prominently featured in his re-election campaign. His victory is virtually assured. Alongside his electoral focus, Putin closely monitors Russia’s economy for signs of overheating and breakdown. The International Monetary Fund predicts a 1.1% growth this year, primarily fueled by war expenditures, with over 29% of the budget allocated to defense. Persistent inflation and tightening sanctions further strain the economy, even as the energy sector remains robust. However, sustained war and social spending are contingent on oil prices staying above US$50-US$60 per barrel. And China is ready to buy Oil.

    While Xi exudes confidence, he grapples with concerns about the economy, Taiwan, and US-China relations. Surface-level indicators suggest a robust Chinese economy, with a 5.2% growth last year meeting the government’s target. Yet, underlying trends signal potential long-term challenges and stagnation. High deflation, real estate sector issues affecting confidence and investment, declining foreign direct investment, and local debt problems contribute to economic tensions in the provinces. The election of William Lai Ching-te in Taiwan has crushed aspirations for more conciliatory leadership and popular opinion in the country, as it is less advantageous to Beijing. Any Tensions raised in the area, China needs Russia there or Russia is only superpower to help China in Taiwan Issue.

    Another possible challenge for Xi comes from the impending US election; if Trump wins, it might worsen the trade conflict and adversely affect China’s ties with Russia and India. Trump has favorable ties with Putin and Modi. Russia and China united this much only because of the Ukraine War, and Trump can possibly bring a resolution of the war. So any events in the Ukraine War will deteriorate resolution. Putin is still cautious of any signs that China is cutting down on its diplomatic and economic backing for Russia, but Xi will be keeping a careful eye on Russia’s activities in Ukraine and its dealings with North Korea.

    Currently, China and India grapple with a strained relationship, marked by eleven military conflicts. Despite Western support for India, they don’t want to align with Western interests, India is judiciously maintaining a cautious distance in its diplomatic engagements. Recognizing the potential drawbacks of aligning too closely with Western interests, India, under the leadership of Narendra Modi, who initially sought positive relations with China before the Galwan Valley conflict, is now openly critical of China. As Modi faces elections this year, he is likely to continue as India’s Prime Minister. Modi’s commitment to upholding Indian identity, along with his party’s emphasis on Indian principles over Western ones, underscores India’s reluctance to align itself closely with the West in the future. Consequently, it becomes evident that China and India need to foster cooperation in the future. Despite their differences, their shared interest in attaining a global superpower position allows for substantial mutual support. Russia, serving as a common friend to both nations, could play a crucial role in solidifying this relationship in the near future.

    In contrast, recent years have posed challenges for China. However, as the nation transitions from the setbacks reminiscent of a rabbit to the promising Year of the Dragon, optimism prevails. The impending Chinese New Year serves as a symbolic turning point, demonstrating China’s resilience in overcoming adversities. No longer defined by the difficulties of the recent past, China enters its auspicious Year of the Dragon with a renewed sense of purpose, poised to shape a more prosperous future.

  • Southeast Asian Nations on Asia Cup 2023: An Analysis

    Southeast Asian Nations on Asia Cup 2023: An Analysis

    The Asia Cup football is now more than just a ceremonial event. It  has undergone a remarkable transformation. Once dismissed by even the most ardent football fans in Asia,  it ascended to the status of a major international football competition, capturing the attention of enthusiasts worldwide. Several factors contribute to this newfound prominence, including the impressive performance of Asian teams in the World Cup, the rising number of Asian players in European leagues, and the notable entry of football icon Cristiano Ronaldo into the Asian scene.

    The upcoming 2023 AFC Asian Cup, the 18th edition of the quadrennial tournament, serves as a testament to this heightened status. Organized by the Asian Football Confederation (AFC), this edition includes 24 national teams following the expansion in 2019, with Qatar defending their title. Noteworthy is the participation of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam—each having hosted the event in 2007—as hosts. Despite the substantial fanbases in these countries, Southeast Asia is often perceived as having weaker contenders in the Asia Cup.

    Even though Southeast Asian countries have not always been thought of as strong competitors, each edition of the event promises an exciting atmosphere, compelling games, and the possibility of unexpected feats on the field. In light of its impending approach, we evaluate each Southeast Asian nation’s chances  in the 2023 AFC Asian Cup. 

    Vietnam

    Fifa Ranking:  94

    Coach: P Troussier

    Vietnam, the top-ranked team in Southeast Asia, finds itself in Group D alongside Japan, Iraq, and Indonesia for the upcoming AFC Asian Cup. 

    Pham Tuan Hai, the star striker of Vietnam’s football team, is poised to make a substantial impact in the 2023 AFC Asian Cup. At 23 years old and playing for Hanoi FC, Hai gained prominence in Southeast Asian football with a standout performance in the 2019 AFC Asian Cup quarter-finals. Additionally, Filip Nguyen, recently granted Vietnamese citizenship, is recognized as one of the country’s most valuable players according to “Transfermarkt”. The growing anticipation surrounding Hai’s performance and the influence he will wield on Vietnam’s journey adds to the tournament’s intrigue. And the coach has  a great career with teams like Japan and Qatar can contribute to the team’s success.

    Despite being grouped with formidable opponents in Iraq and Japan, Vietnam has a recent history of success, including reaching the quarter-finals in the 2019 Asian Cup. The team’s achievements in the 2017 U17 World Cup qualification and the silver medal in the 2018 AFC U-23 Championship demonstrate their youth level improvement. While Iraq and Japan pose tough challenges, Vietnam’s Chances are mild to the second round and Their recent five matches have seen only one  victory, that was against the Philippines.

    Prediction :Group Stage.

    Thailand

    Fifa Ranking:  113

    Coach: Masatada Ishii

    Thailand has earned its status as the most successful football team in Southeast Asia, clinching seven AFF Championship trophies and securing the highest number of senior-level gold medals at the Southeast Asian Games among its regional counterparts. While the team achieved a notable third-place finish in the 1972 AFC Asian Cup when hosting the event, their overall records include seven appearances in the AFC Asian Cup. Despite successful runs in the 1990 and 1998 Asian Games, as well as two appearances in the Summer Olympics, Thailand has faced challenges in making a mark on the continental and global stage. It wasn’t until the 2007 AFC Asian Cup that the team secured its first victory, and a breakthrough occurred in 2019, marking the end of a 47-year wait to advance beyond the group stage.

    As Thailand enters Group C in the upcoming AFC Asian Cup alongside Saudi Arabia, Kyrgyzstan, and Oman, it faces teams with higher rankings. Over the last five matches, Thailand secured only one victory. Despite this, the team is led by a Japanese coach with a commendable track record, including J1 titles and FIFA club runner-up medals. The pre-quarter prospect from this group presents a favorable opportunity for the Thai team to showcase their capabilities.

    Prediction : Possible Second Round.

    Malaysia

    Fifa Ranking:  130

    Coach: Kim Pan-Gon

    Since assuming leadership of the Malaysia national team at the beginning of 2022, the 54-year-old head coach has been diligently instilling a belief in his players, emphasizing their capability to defend aggressively and play with a proactive approach. Under his guidance, Malaysia has made significant strides, ascending from the 154th position in the FIFA rankings when Kim assumed control to the current 130th spot. However, despite this progress, Malaysia remains perceived as an outsider in Group E, which includes formidable opponents like Jordan, Bahrain, and Kim’s homeland, South Korea.

    Historically, Malaysia has never advanced to the second round of the AFC Asian Cup, but there is a sense of anticipation surrounding the resurgence of “Harimau Malaya” this time. Both Jordan and Bahrain boast higher rankings than Malaysia, yet Kim Pan Gon asserts that the pressure is on Malaysia’s opponents, as they will be expected to secure a win. For Malaysia, achieving a draw would be considered a positive outcome. Kim emphasizes the importance of maintaining a tight defensive game and excelling in set pieces to capitalize on the pressure their opponents may feel.

    While aiming for the elusive second round, Kim’s focus lies not only on tactical preparation but also on maintaining the mental resilience and confidence of the Malaysian team throughout the tournament.

     Prediction : Group Stage.

    Indonesia 

    Fifa Ranking:  146

    Coach: Shin Tae-yong

    Indonesia has been placed in Group D alongside Japan, Iraq, and fellow Southeast Asian nation Vietnam for the upcoming tournament. A noteworthy target for Indonesia would be to reach the second round, adding to the nation’s football history. The team holds the distinction of being the first Asian representative in the FIFA World Cup, making their debut in the 1938 edition as the Dutch East Indies. Unfortunately, their sole appearance ended in a 6–0 defeat to eventual finalists Hungary in the first round.

    Despite participating in the AFC Asian Cup five times, Indonesia has yet to progress beyond the group stage in the last four tournaments. However, they did achieve a remarkable bronze medal at the 1958 Asian Games in Tokyo. In a bid for rejuvenation and inspired by the success of Park Hang-seo in Vietnam, the Indonesian Football Association (PSSI) appointed Shin Tae-yong as the coach to lead the team in the upcoming 2023 AFC Asian Cup qualification.

    Under Shin Tae-yong’s management, the senior team underwent significant restructuring, incorporating numerous young players, many of whom emerged from the Indonesia national under-23 football team. The team’s youthful energy was evident as Indonesia reached the 2020 AFF Championship final with an average player age of 23. In a surprising turn, Indonesia secured a 2–1 victory against the host and former Asian champions Kuwait in the 2023 AFC Asian Cup qualification, marking the first official win by a Southeast Asian team against a West Asian host since 2004.

    The final qualification match saw Indonesia dominate with a resounding 7–0 victory over Nepal at the Jaber Al-Ahmad International Stadium, earning them a spot in the 2023 AFC Asian Cup after a 16-year absence. In a notable friendly match on June 19, 2023, Indonesia hosted the 2022 FIFA World Cup champions, Argentina, as part of their preparations for the upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification. Despite holding their ground against the world champions, a long strike from Leandro Paredes secured a 1–0 win for Argentina just before halftime. In the second half, Cristian Romero’s header extended the lead to 2–0 for the Argentines. Although Indonesia may be considered low-ranked, their potential for a magical performance on the grand stage is undeniable.

    Prediction : Possible Second Round.