Tag: Kazakhstan

  • Are New Rail Routes Enhancing Kazakhstan’s Strategic Role?

    Are New Rail Routes Enhancing Kazakhstan’s Strategic Role?

    Kazakhstan, the world’s ninth-largest country, is often overlooked despite its rich history, vibrant culture, and vast natural resources. For much of its modern existence, it remained a satellite of Russia, never fully stepping into its own spotlight. Its landlocked geography and strategic vulnerabilities kept it tethered to Moscow’s influence, even after gaining independence in 1991 following the Soviet Union’s collapse. Russia continued to shape its political trajectory, limiting its ability to assert true sovereignty.

    However, more than three decades after independence, Kazakhstan is now finally charting its own course. While maintaining political ties with Russia, it has strengthened its partnership with China, expanded relations with India and the Gulf states, and deepened engagement with Europe and the United States. No longer solely reliant on Moscow, Kazakhstan is leveraging its growing ties with Beijing to bolster its economic and strategic standing.

    At the heart of this transformation is the Middle Corridor—a trade route linking China to Europe through Kazakhstan while bypassing Russia. This corridor has strengthened Kazakhstan’s geopolitical standing and opened new economic opportunities, firmly establishing the country as a vital hub in global trade.

    The Middle Corridor

    The Middle Corridor, a high-stakes trade route, provides the shortest overland link between China and Europe, sidestepping war-ravaged Russia and the increasingly congested Suez Canal. More than a mere alternative, it reflects shifting geopolitical tides and economic realignments, emerging as a transformative force in global trade. Kazakhstan’s national railway company emphasizes that the corridor not only expands regional transport capacity but also improves the speed, flexibility, and reliability of international logistics.

    Beijing, driven by strategic economic ambitions, is actively expanding its access to European markets while bypassing Russia and strengthening its foothold in Central Asia by leading this project. This shift not only deprives the Kremlin of crucial transit revenue but also weakens its geopolitical leverage. As the Ukrainian news outlet Dialog notes, Chinese goods that once flowed through Russia are now shifting to these new routes—an unmistakable sign of Moscow’s declining influence over Eurasian trade. Meanwhile, rising regional powers like Kazakhstan and Turkey are positioning themselves as key players in this evolving economic landscape.

    The Corridor is Filling Out

    Despite Russia’s extensive transit network, a legacy of the Soviet era, the Middle Corridor still demands substantial infrastructure upgrades and investment. Yet, as its strategic importance becomes undeniable, countries along the route are accelerating efforts and channeling funds into its development.

    China and Kazakhstan have officially launched a new freight rail transit line to transport Chinese goods to Europe while bypassing Russia. Additionally, China is developing two more westbound freight corridors through Kazakhstan and the Caspian Sea, further diminishing Moscow’s role as a key transit hub.

    According to Kazakhstan’s State Railway company, the first container train on this route departed from Chengdu in central China on March 4, bound for the Polish city of Łódź. Carrying televisions and other electronic components, the train is expected to complete its 40-day journey through Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran, and Turkey before reaching the European Union’s border. Its success is expected to pave the way for more trains along the route.

    Kazakhstan at the Center

    Kazakhstan has strengthened its global standing by rapidly developing its infrastructure and managing its resources more effectively. Its growing geopolitical importance has allowed it to stand more confidently before Moscow and negotiate with Russia on equal footing. Analysts point to several key moments that highlight this shift, including Kazakhstan’s neutral stance during the Azerbaijan-Russia tensions following the downing of an Azerbaijani civilian plane.

    Moscow has lost its grip over land logistics between China and Europe, as Kazakhstan, China, and Turkey now control this crucial transit route. With its geopolitical influence expanding, Kazakhstan is increasingly seen as a rising power. More nations recognize its strategic importance, making it an indispensable player in regional trade and diplomacy.

    Reflecting this growing influence, Uzbekistan’s state railway agency recently launched a new freight transit route connecting India to Kazakhstan. Workers loaded twelve containers onto a freighter at India’s Mundra port, sending them to Iran’s Bandar Abbas port. From there, the shipment will travel by rail through Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan before reaching its final destination near Astana, Kazakhstan’s capital. Expected to take 25 to 30 days, the new route could significantly reduce transport costs while creating more opportunities for exporters and importers.

    Russia’s war in Ukraine, far from merely redrawing battle lines, has inadvertently accelerated Kazakhstan’s ascent, hastening the emergence of a more self-assured and strategically independent Central Asia.

  • How Azerbaijan Found the Nerve to Stand Up to Russia

    How Azerbaijan Found the Nerve to Stand Up to Russia

    Russia is floundering on all fronts. Humiliated on the battlefield and steadily losing once-friendly nations in Europe, it faces mounting economic hardship, forced to sell its resources at cut-rate prices to China and India. Yet perhaps the greater indignity lies in the defiance of its former satellite states—once obedient, now emboldened to seek new alliances. The war in Ukraine, one of Putin’s most catastrophic miscalculations, has become a lingering nightmare for the Kremlin. Countries that once deferred to Moscow now openly challenge its authority. The latest to break ranks is Azerbaijan, a small but strategically significant Caucasus nation long dependent on Russia. As tensions rise over the downing of an Azerbaijani passenger jet, the standoff is yet another sign of Moscow’s eroding influence over its former empire.

    Azerbaijan has every right to be outraged after losing its citizens in what it considers a Russian mistake. Few, however, could have anticipated that the fallout would escalate into a full-blown standoff.

    On December 25, an Azerbaijan Airlines plane crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, killing 38 people after being rerouted across the Caspian Sea from southern Russia. In the aftermath, Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev—a close ally of Vladimir Putin—accused Russia of accidentally shooting down the aircraft with its air defense system. He condemned Moscow for attempting to conceal the incident for days, calling the response shocking, regrettable, and a legitimate cause for indignation in Baku.

    In an unusual move, Putin expressed condolences and referred to the crash as a tragic incident, though he stopped short of admitting Russia’s responsibility—a response that only deepened Azerbaijan’s anger.

    Tensions have been high since the incident. On Wednesday, the APA news agency, closely tied to the Azerbaijani government, reported that Baku was preparing to take Russia to international court over the alleged downing of the plane. The agency disclosed that facts and evidence were being collected, with preparations underway for an official appeal. The article also delivered a pointed criticism of Moscow, accusing it of trying to evade responsibility for the incident.

    The report revealed that Azerbaijan had identified both the individuals who gave the order to fire and those who followed through with it. The article implied that Russia was trying to craft a scenario similar to the Malaysia Airlines incident, drawing a parallel to Moscow’s ongoing denial of responsibility for the 2014 downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine. APA warned that unless Russia publicly acknowledged its role and took responsibility, Baku would escalate its response.

    The article, widely believed to have been published with the approval of local authorities in tightly controlled Azerbaijan, appeared a day after a report from Kazakh officials, which revealed that the plane had sustained external damage and had numerous holes in its fuselage. The report, however, was carefully worded and refrained from specifying the cause of the damage, including to the plane’s stabilizers, hydraulics, and trim systems. 

    On Thursday, tensions further escalated when Azerbaijan ordered Moscow to shut down the Russian House cultural center in Baku. The center, operated by Rossotrudnichestvo—a Russian federal agency viewed as a tool of Russian soft power and often suspected of functioning as a front for espionage and covert operations—was the target of this action. Simultaneously, Azerbaijani state media reported that Baku had sent a rare shipment of non-military aid to support Ukraine.

    What gives this small state, traditionally within Russia’s sphere of influence, the courage to engage in a dispute with the mighty Russia? Several factors are at play. First, Russia’s downfall is a significant motivator. When the war in Ukraine began, many expected that Ukraine would fall within a month, but now, three years later, Ukraine is still standing strong and has become a major ally of the West. Meanwhile, states like Sweden and Finland who refused to join the west previously  have joined NATO, and Russia has been unable to block them. Militarily, Russia is no longer perceived as a superpower, and Azerbaijan believes it can withstand challenges from Russia.

    Second, there’s the economic factor. Beyond the surface, Russia’s economy and businesses are struggling under the weight of sanctions. Tying Azerbaijan’s economy to Russia could cause trouble for Azerbaijan’s business interests as well. However, distancing itself from Russia opens up more economic freedom for Azerbaijan. This newfound confidence is also fueled by Azerbaijan’s growing role in the West’s energy plans, especially after the EU sought alternatives to Russian fossil fuels.

    Azerbaijan’s stance is also part of a broader regional trend. Its longtime rival, Armenia, publicly broke with the Kremlin after Russian peacekeeping forces failed to prevent Azerbaijan from seizing control of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023. Armenia became the first country to leave the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and began turning to the West and Iran for support. Recently, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan even hinted at pursuing EU membership.

    In neighboring Georgia, thousands have taken to the streets, pushing for Western support. Azerbaijan, however, is not necessarily looking to Europe for support. With Turkey, a key ally and fellow ethnic partner, in power, Azerbaijan sees strengthening its ties with Turkey as a route to greater Western alignment. This shift also reflects a broader change in the Middle East, where Iran’s influence, along with Russia’s, is waning. More countries, including Lebanon and Syria, are gravitating toward pro-Western governments, and Azerbaijan could easily join this trend.

    Many still believe that President Aliyev is playing a delicate game, leveraging his close ties with Moscow to manage the situation. By escalating tensions with Russia, he may be attempting to redirect public anger over the incident, easing pressure on his regime and preventing mass protests. Despite the apparent standoff, Azerbaijan and Russia remain deeply intertwined economically and politically, and some caution against assuming a complete break.

    In recent years, Azerbaijan has solidified its economic ties with Russia, with Moscow increasingly dependent on Azerbaijan as a crucial transit hub. Perched on the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan facilitates the movement of goods to and from Iran and the Persian Gulf, helping Russia circumvent Western sanctions and tap into new markets. While some in Moscow hold out hope that a genuine apology could mollify tensions and restore the status quo, one cannot help but wonder: Has Azerbaijan grown strong enough to challenge the once-unstoppable Russia? Or could it be that Russia’s grip has weakened to such a degree that even a small power like Azerbaijan now dares to stand in opposition?

  • Kazakhstan’s Shrewd Neutrality in Azerbaijan-Russia Tensions

    Kazakhstan’s Shrewd Neutrality in Azerbaijan-Russia Tensions

    Russia finds itself in an embarrassing position, forced to apologize to Azerbaijan over a significant aviation incident that has created an unexpected rift between the two former Soviet republics. Once allies, their relationship—marked by Azerbaijan’s support for Russia during sanctions and Russia’s backing of Azerbaijan in its conflict with Armenia—has been strained by the crash. The tensions evolved when Russia, amid its war with Ukraine and ongoing drone threats, accidentally shot down an Azerbaijani civilian plane. In response, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev demanded full accountability, sharply criticizing Russia’s apology while avoiding full responsibility. While some see this as political posturing by two authoritarian leaders, the discord is adding a new layer of complexity to their partnership. Kazakhstan, a common ally of both and the site of the plane crash, is now caught in the middle. As authorities prepare to hand over the black box data to Kazakhstan, the country faces the challenge of managing the geopolitical fallout.

    Kazakhstan is effectively mediating between two feuding partners, both critical to its interests. Leaning too far toward one risks alienating the other, particularly if they reconcile. Russia, as Kazakhstan’s protector and economic partner, wields considerable influence over the country’s actions. Russia holds leverage through the pipeline transporting oil from Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oil field to export markets via the Russian port of Novorossiysk. Managed by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, this pipeline handles around 80% of Tengiz oil exports. Moscow could disrupt operations to influence Kazakhstan’s decisions or punish it for perceived missteps. As seen in the summer of 2022, Russia can halt the transportation of Kazakh oil to Europe under the guise of infrastructure repairs. This could result in significant losses for Kazakhstan, signaling a harsh warning from Russia.

    At this juncture, Kazakhstan may have even more to lose by alienating Azerbaijan. The two countries are crucial transit points for East-West trade along the Middle Corridor, and they are also collaborating on a consortium to ship solar- and wind-generated power to Western markets. For Astana, Baku is a very important partner, and in the future, an even more vital one, particularly in the joint development of the Trans-Caspian route.

    Despite Kazakhstan’s central role in the investigation, Kazakh officials have sought to remain aloof from the growing controversy. In the hours following the crash, they appeared to amplify alternative theories promoted by Russia, including the now-debunked claim that an oxygen tank inside the aircraft exploded. Kazakh officials also initially supported a Russian proposal for a CIS commission to handle the investigation, which would have given Moscow greater influence over both the scope and final report of the probe. As mounting evidence, including survivor testimonies, pointed to a shoot-down, Kazakhstan shifted to a more neutral stance. In the final days of December, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev held telephone conversations with both Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Russian President Vladimir Putin, as reported by the presidential press service, though the substance of those talks remained undisclosed.

    State-controlled media in Kazakhstan has largely refrained from speculating on the cause of the crash, instead highlighting the government’s commitment to uncovering the truth. Official publications emphasize that Kazakhstan is diligently working to determine what happened, strictly adhering to international guidelines. Transport Minister Marat Karabayev, for example, cited the International Civil Aviation Organization’s Chicago Convention to justify sending the jet’s black boxes to Brazil—a move likely to irk Russia, given its apparent desire to suppress evidence of a shoot-down. Independent media outlets in Kazakhstan, such as Orda.kz, have taken a more critical approach, often highlighting statements from Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Western officials who attribute responsibility for the tragedy to Russia. However, the Kazakhstan government  has notably refrained from directly blaming Russia, a stance that remains intriguing.

    On most occasions, these three countries manage to resolve their issues due to the connection between flawed administrations, shared interests in blocking Western influence, and a convenient yet unholy alliance between businesses and politicians. The current drift is part of an authoritarian theater, meant to keep their populations in check. However, it’s noteworthy that Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have reached a point where they can challenge Russia, showcasing the evident decline of Russian power. If this shift continues and the political theater backfires, Azerbaijan may lean closer to Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the U.S., further escalating tensions. Caught between the Russian and Turkic spheres, Kazakhstan could face even more significant challenges. A shift in alliances seems to be unfolding in Central Asia, and this evolving tension deserves careful monitoring.

  • As Sanctions Suffocate Russia, Kazakhstan Struggles to Breathe

    As Sanctions Suffocate Russia, Kazakhstan Struggles to Breathe

    Landlocked and deeply intertwined with Russian politics and economics, Kazakhstan has long felt the gravitational pull of its northern neighbor. For decades, the nation has relied on Russia as its gateway to the globe. But as Russia faces its toughest period in recent years and endures a deluge of sanctions over its war in Ukraine, Kazakhstan’s dependence has become costly.

    When the war began and Western sanctions were imposed on Russia, many speculated that Kazakhstan might benefit from Russia’s economic isolation, with businesses redirecting trade through its borders. However, the reality has been far harsher. Kazakhstan now finds itself burdened by unavoidable sanctions. The surging U.S. dollar, a weakening ruble, and a flood of Russian migrants, goods, and businesses have further strained the country’s economy. This mounting pressure has battered the tenge, stretched public finances, and made daily life increasingly difficult for its citizens.

    Over the past two weeks, the Kazakh tenge has steadily weakened, unsettling citizens just ahead of the holiday season. On December 4, the currency dropped to 522 against the U.S. dollar. Although it briefly regained ground, it slid again, trading at 521 by December 11. This sharp decline—nearly 10 percent in just ten days—has ignited a firestorm on social media across Kazakhstan. The tenge’s rapid depreciation is fueling inflation, especially for food and consumer goods, much of which is imported from Russia. In Almaty and other cities, prices continue to rise, compounding the stress on an already uneasy population.

    Kazakhstan’s National Bank, in a statement on November 28, attributed the tenge’s sharp decline to a number of external fundamental factors. The bank identified Russia’s faltering economy, grappling with a steep ruble devaluation, as a key driver of the currency’s struggles. The tenge’s drop closely followed reports of the ruble hitting its lowest level in over two years after the announcement of a fresh round of U.S. sanctions.

    The National Bank highlighted the strengthening U.S. dollar as a significant factor driving the tenge’s decline, noting that a strong dollar is traditionally a negative factor for raw materials. It also cited the worsening geopolitics and energy market price volatility as additional pressures on foreign exchange markets.

    Kazakhstan’s reliance on raw materials like oil and gas as its primary exports has heightened speculative pressure, increasing the likelihood of further currency volatility.  Energy companies, a major source of government revenue in Kazakhstan, pay their taxes in dollars. As a result, the tenge’s recent decline is not expected to significantly impact the state budget in the short term. Despite this, economic analysts remain concerned about the near future.

    In late November, the National Bank sold more than $1 billion in assets from the National Fund, the country’s strategic reserves, and plans to allocate another $900 million in December to stabilize the tenge. To curb inflation, the bank also increased the base rate by one percentage point, raising it to 15.25 percent.

    Analysts worry that Kazakhstan’s heavy dependence on the National Fund to prop up the tenge may undermine the country’s economic resilience in the medium term. In October, the International Monetary Fund called on Astana to establish clearer fiscal policy guidelines to safeguard the National Fund’s ability to finance social and economic infrastructure projects and shield the economy from future shocks.

    By the end of November, the National Bank revised its inflation forecast for 2025, raising the projected range to 6.5-8.5 percent from the earlier estimate of 5.5-7.5 percent. However, actual price increases significantly outpace the official inflation figures, as highlighted by price comparisons in stores and markets frequently shared by bloggers.

    Many investors have started to withdraw their money from the country. Despite higher interest rates and rising credit costs, people continue to take out loans, which inevitably pushes prices higher and places additional pressure on the tenge. The weakening ruble against both the U.S. dollar and the tenge could also lead to an influx of Russian food and goods into the Kazakh market. This influx, experts warn, could erode the competitiveness of local producers and further destabilize Kazakhstan’s economy. Tough times lie ahead for the country. Although the government and National Bank claim they are addressing the issue and try to spread optimism, the public remains unconvinced.

    In reality, Kazakhstan has little control over the situation, as it remains deeply tied to Russia, an influence it cannot escape. While China recently surpassed Russia as Kazakhstan’s largest trading partner in overall turnover, Russia still held the top spot as Kazakhstan’s primary source of imports during the first eight months of 2024, accounting for nearly 30 percent of the total, according to official government statistics. 

    Kazakhstan’s dependence on Russia is largely a result of the country’s corrupt political elites. For over 30 years, these leaders have prioritized political maneuvering, self-promotion, and resource distribution, rather than working to strengthen the nation’s statehood. They have neglected vital areas such as economic development, infrastructure diversification (including alternative oil export routes), the creation of a secure information environment, improving public welfare, and fostering a stable middle class. By mirroring Russia’s political system, they constructed a false democracy that silences opposition and preserves their own grip on power. Closing the door to the West, they guaranteed continued alignment with Russia. As long as the current administration remains in power, Kazakhstan’s ties to Russia will endure, despite Western attempts to intervene. Meanwhile, the burden of this relationship continues to fall on the people.

  • Will the Turkic States Group Become a Major International Player?

    Will the Turkic States Group Become a Major International Player?

    Turkic and Turkey might sound confusing, like Turkey the bird and Turkey the country, but there’s a distinction. Turkey is a Turkic state, but not all Turkic states are Turkey. Let’s not drag this into more confusion: Turkic states are a group that includes Turkey. They share a common ethnic background, similar language, cuisine, and almost identical culture, extending from Kazakhstan to Turkey. This includes most Central Asian countries except Tajikistan, the Caucasian state Azerbaijan, and Turkey (Türkiye). Some even include Hungary due to historical and linguistic ties.

    Currently, these countries are part of an evolving group that can influence Asian politics, global politics, and the global economy. They support and care for each other, with kebabs being a beloved symbol of their shared culture. Historically, the political evolution of this group was limited due to Russian influence. Now, they are free and more united.

    The Organization of Turkic States (OTS) is the union of Turkic states that we are discussing. It includes Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan, and Turkey as full members, with Turkmenistan, Hungary, and Northern Cyprus as observers. The OTS was founded in 2009 to strengthen the bond between these countries. During the 8th summit in 2021, the organization was restructured to enhance cooperation, with refreshed objectives ranging from trade to extradition agreements. While many believe the OTS’ main aim is cooperation and growth, others think the organization’s main objective is the cultural revival of Muslim Turkic culture and protection from external influences, such as Russia’s historical cultural integration with Central Asian countries. As OTS eagerly pursues expanded trade relations with the West, the leaders of Turkic states in Eurasia are cautious about importing Western values. 

    The latest summit of the OTS was held in Azerbaijan, showcasing the dichotomy of interests among the Turkic heads of state. Hosted by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in the Nagorno-Karabakh town of Shusha, a region recently recaptured from Armenia, Aliyev highlighted in his opening remarks his vision for the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) to become an influential global entity capable of protecting regional interests from outside influence. He emphasized that the OTS should become one of the prominent international forces, stressing the commitment of their peoples to traditional values and shared ethnic roots that closely bind their countries. According to him, the 21st century must be a century of progress for the Turkic world.

    After praising traditional values and shared heritage, Aliyev stressed the significance of enhancing trade, declaring, “Expanding the East-West transport corridor is among our foremost priorities”. His sentiments were echoed by other participants, including Kazakhstan’s president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who stressed the need to utilize the full potential of the Trans-Caspian international transport route. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who attended the Shusha summit, referred to the OTS as a “Very important organization for cooperation between the West and East”.

    Aliyev urged his fellow heads of state to show greater commitment to the OTS through increased budget allocations, noting Azerbaijan’s recent $2 million contribution to enhance the OTS secretariat. They recognize the economic potential of the bloc, as member countries are rich in minerals and generate significant revenue from their resources. With Russia’s influence weakening, superpowers such as China, India, Korea, and the United States are keen to explore opportunities in the region. It is believed that uniting these countries will increase their scope and opportunities.

    Political scientists believe that the OTS represents a solution for Turkic leaders to navigate their complex political relationships. Aliyev’s efforts to bolster the OTS come at a time when Baku’s relations with the West have deteriorated. Over the past year, Aliyev and other top Azerbaijani officials have openly expressed grievances against the U.S., France, and major European bodies. In his inaugural address in February, Aliyev signaled further divergence from the West, speaking enthusiastically about pan-Turkic cooperation. Although Aliyev appreciates ties with Russia, they maintain a certain distance. Azerbaijan frequently boasts of its friendship with Pakistan, considers Turkey a brother, and is open to cooperation with India and Iran for trade. While trade is welcome, maintaining Turkic identity is their top priority. This sentiment is shared by other Turkic states, which rely on trade with various superpowers  but prioritize their cultural unity and Turkic identity.

    It’s certain that the OTS has great potential. With its strategically important location, population, economy, minerals, and everything necessary to grow into a superpower, they can impact world dynamics akin to the impact of the EU on global dynamics. United, they will gain more bargaining power and can effectively utilize their resources, particularly minerals currently in high global demand. The geographical area, intersecting important trade routes across all directions, west to east and north to south, will promote their growth. So, if they remain united, as Aliyev said, it’s a century for the Turkic world. 

  • Is Kazakhstan Imitating Russia by Targeting Critics

    Is Kazakhstan Imitating Russia by Targeting Critics

    Kazakhstan, often referred to as “Junior Russia”, is the second largest republic in the former Soviet Union and remains closely aligned with Russia. Kazakhstan politics are deeply intertwined with Russian politics. While the European  Russosphere countries are increasingly shifting towards the West and adopting an anti-Putin stance, Kazakhstan is not yet ready to feel this wind of change. Until now, Kazakhstan’s politics have been considered flawed, potentially placing it among a list of countries with poor democratic practices. This flawed democracy could also be seen as a binding factor between Russia and Kazakhstan. Politicians of both countries need each other to cover their undemocratic democracies. None of Kazakhstan’s elections have met Western standards for fairness; issues include ballot tampering, multiple voting, harassment of opposition candidates, and press censorship. Similar to Russia, political party winners can often be predicted early, and genuine opposition voices are not tolerated in the country. Wait, it’s all about Kazakhstan, not Russia; the similarities may indeed be genuine.

    Kazakhstan is also known for targeting critics of the regime, similar to Russia. Numerous incidents have been reported, including the recent attempted killing of Aydos Sadykov, a Kazakh opposition figure and prominent blogger with over 1 million subscribers on YouTube. Sadykov, who operates the YouTube channel named “ Base” and was granted asylum in Ukraine in 2014, was shot near his home. He has been wanted in Kazakhstan since last year. Sadykov and his wife jointly run the popular opposition social media channel in Kazakhstan, known for its strong criticism of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

    According to Natalya Sadykov, while driving into their apartment building’s courtyard on June 18 afternoon, her husband Sadykov was shot by a man wielding a pistol while seated in the driver’s seat of their car. Ukrainian police released a photo of a dark-colored vehicle with a shattered driver’s side window, stating that the search for the attacker was ongoing. Kyiv officials announced the initiation of an investigation, stating: “Preliminary information suggests that an unidentified individual approached the car containing the victim and his wife, fired a gunshot at the man, and then escaped”. Sadykov is currently in hospital in bad condition. They added that law enforcement is taking steps to identify the assailant. Sadykova later mentioned that her husband underwent surgery and remains in serious condition. She requested prayers for his recovery. She also accused President Tokayev of orchestrating the assassination.

    Sadykov was targeted by the Kazakhstani government, akin to Russia’s pursuit of Alexey Navalny. Last October, Kazakh authorities placed the Sadykovs on a wanted list, accusing them of engaging in criminally unlawful conduct by “Inciting Social Hatred”, a charge often expected from such regimes. Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev condemned the attack on June 19, describing it as a “Serious Incident”. He emphasized that all societal conflicts and disagreements should be resolved lawfully and in accordance with international norms. Tokayev also expressed Kazakhstan’s readiness to assist Ukraine in identifying the perpetrators.

    Political analysts in Kazakhstan have offered differing views on the motives and consequences of the attempted murder. Dimash Alzhanov, a political scientist known for his critical stance against the government, suggested that news of the attack sends a significant signal to Kazakhstani society. He warned that such actions could backfire, exacerbating societal anger and deepening divisions. Alzhanov emphasized the importance of constructive dialogue over destructive tactics.

    Kazakhstan is actively working to improve its image in international communities and position itself as a hub for business, while also enhancing relationships with various countries. However, repeated incidents like these could tarnish its image and potentially lead to sanctions similar to those imposed on Russia. Despite recent efforts to open up internationally, Kazakhstan’s domestic politics have seen little change. These inconsistencies may hinder cooperation with the West.

  • How Are Trade Barrier Reforms Progressing In Central Asian States?

    How Are Trade Barrier Reforms Progressing In Central Asian States?

    The economy of the United States is its greatest asset. Instead of relying solely on its military, it utilizes the hegemony of the dollar and its economic might to forge partnerships with other countries. The United States’ financial contributions led to a West-leaning, communist-averse Europe after World War II. Similarly, it spurred the resurgence of East Asia by injecting capital and ensuring the market. The United States’ economic interests have played a significant role in mitigating full-scale conflicts in the Middle East. This strategy, centered on leveraging financial resources and markets to build alliances, is now expanding to encompass Central Asia. Central Asia, once hindered by the dominant influence of the Soviet Union and Russia, is now becoming more accessible to the United States. The US initiative in the region seeks to foster a market conducive to the prosperity of Central Asian states and to attract American investment, thereby strengthening ties with the United States. 

    Central Asian states have long been characterized by trade barriers, bureaucratic hurdles, and regulatory complexities, greatly impeding economic progress. However, steps are currently being taken to tackle these challenges, representing a significant advancement towards creating a unified regional market similar to the streamlined documentation and policy frameworks found in Europe. Promoting the establishment of such a unified Central Asian market and facilitating smooth trade and service flow are fundamental elements of a regional economic strategy championed by the United States, known as the B5+1 initiative. Amidst a flurry of diplomatic engagements in mid-April, Central Asian leaders are actively exploring the potential of the B5+1 initiative. Launched in March, the B5+1 initiative assigns the five Central Asian nations, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, with the responsibility of spearheading efforts to promote regional free trade and enhance export opportunities.

    In recent times, geopolitical analysts have turned their attention to the growing interactions among Central Asian countries, spurred by the diminishing influence of Russia and the stagnating economic growth of  China . Notably, a multitude of discussions and agreements have unfolded in the region, often without the presence of Russia. A significant event occurred on April 18, when Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Tajik President Emomali Rahmon signed 28 interstate agreements spanning political, economic, and social realms. Noteworthy among these were two agreements aimed at bolstering trade between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, with a focus on simplifying customs procedures at border checkpoints and safeguarding industrial property rights. Preceding Mirziyoyev’s visit, a joint investment forum in Dushanbe drew around 600 officials and business leaders from both nations. They expressed keen interest in collaborative ventures, particularly within the mining and renewable energy sectors, and sought to expand trade. Initiatives such as establishing a free trade zone at the Oybek-Fotekhobod border crossing and developing a logistics hub at Andarkhan were emphasized. Additionally, plans were unveiled to streamline permit requirements for freight-carrying trucks crossing the Tajik-Uzbek border. Despite bilateral trade reaching $505 million in 2023, officials aspire to elevate it to $2 billion in the near future. This ambition was echoed by Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev during his agreements signing with Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov, underscoring the significance of facilitating cross-border movement and enhancing the exchange of manufactured goods. Subsequent to discussions with Japarov, Tokayev engaged in talks with Uzbekistan’s Mirziyoyev, likely focusing on regional trade dynamics. While details of these discussions were scarce, it was apparent that bilateral relations and regional cooperation were prioritized. However, challenges persist, notably between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, where trade turnover declined significantly due to ongoing border disputes and unmarked border areas. Additionally, Turkmenistan poses a significant obstacle to efforts aimed at promoting connectivity, with issues such as a severe shortage of qualified personnel hindering international cooperation within contractual frameworks. Nonetheless, Ashgabat’s interest in expanding regional trade appears substantial, as evidenced by the sizable delegation it dispatched to the inaugural B5+1 conference in Almaty.

    Recent diplomatic initiatives seem to have drawn the Kremlin’s attention, as it expresses concern that increased trade facilitation in Central Asia could lead to the expansion of commercial networks that bypass Russia. The ongoing developments aimed at streamlining trade processes in Central Asia appear to unsettle Moscow.  Nevertheless, landlocked countries with tough terrain require substantial investments in infrastructure to connect with the global economy. They traditionally rely on Russia, and China made a lot of road and rail networks under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It is unlikely that Russia, China, and Iran will cooperate with the trade union in this context. So the US could potentially influence countries such as Pakistan and the Southern Caucasus countries, which have aligned with European interests. These will lead to huge shifts in the entire asia geopolitical landscape. So the Impact of B5+1 will grow beyond Central Asia.

  • Central Asian States Embrace US-Facilitated Integration Plan: Redefining Regional Dynamics

    Central Asian States Embrace US-Facilitated Integration Plan: Redefining Regional Dynamics

    Once firmly ensconced within Russia’s sphere of influence, Central Asia is now slowly stepping out of its shadow. Despite possessing vast economic potential, abundant geographical resources, and significant opportunities for tourism, the region had been reluctant to liberate itself from the iron grip of the Soviet era. However, as Russia’s influence diminishes and Central Asian nations strive to assert their own identities, they are increasingly seeking collaboration with other global actors.

    China has made notable strides, participating in diverse agreements like the Belt and Road Initiative and embarking on infrastructure and mining ventures. India, an emerging economic force, similarly seeks to tap into Central Asia’s mineral resources to satisfy its expanding needs, resulting in numerous accords. Under Erdogan’s leadership, Turkey has rekindled its focus on the Turkic identity and is deepening its engagement in the region. Saudi Arabia expresses interest, while Iran sustains its presence.

    Despite these shifts, the United States, a major player in global politics, has not significantly intervened in the region, largely deferring to Russian authority. Central Asian leaders have also distanced themselves from the United States to maintain favor with Russian rulers. However, as Russia’s supremacy is challenged with the incidents such as the Ukraine conflict and increasing alignment of neighboring countries with the United States, both Central Asia and the U.S. see an opportunity for closer ties and market exploration in the region.

    The United States is initiating a strategic effort, akin to stringing  pearls, to unify all Central Asian nations into a cohesive network of collaboration. They initiated B5+1, a diplomatic platform for Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan) and the U.S.. Following its inaugural Forum, the group is placing emphasis on five priority industries and outlining specific actions necessary to expedite regional integration and economic growth in Central Asia. Attendees at the March 2024 Forum in Almaty, Kazakhstan, included business leaders, investors, experts, and policymakers from the region and various other nations. The role of the United States in this initiative is that of a facilitator, anticipating that Central Asian states will lead efforts to integrate the region’s economy through robust public-private partnerships. Furthermore, the involvement of the private sector is deemed essential in shaping the process.

    the United States  laying a sturdy groundwork for potential success. Central Asian governments are responding positively to the plan. The objective of the primary forum was to foster discussions aimed at dismantling trade barriers hindering outside investment and fostering a regional market. This objective has been successfully realized. Interest from regional governments in developing the B5+1 initiative appears robust, with Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan reportedly vying to host the forum next year.

    The Kazakh government, the biggest player in the region, has shown immense support for the initiative. During the closing remarks of the initial B5+1 forum, held in Almaty from March 13-15, Kazakh First Deputy Minister of National Economy Timur Zhaksylykov expressed the government’s willingness to collaborate with the private sector in enhancing trade prospects, particularly in sectors like agribusiness and e-commerce. They also expressed a commitment to working towards the development of a unified regional market.

    During the Almaty forum, private sector representatives issued a statement expressing their commitment to coordinating efforts aimed at enhancing trade, transit, and investment facilitation. Additionally, they pledged to work towards harmonizing regulations in key industries beyond the dominant energy and extractive sectors, which have traditionally attracted the majority of Western investment in the region. The B5+1 initiative has identified five economic sectors for prioritized development: trade and logistics, agribusiness, e-commerce, tourism, and renewable energy. Areas where the United States can pump their interest and money.

    They also addressed the immediate need to establish a regional chamber of commerce to advocate for economic integration. One common priority identified across all sectors is the development of transnational mechanisms to harmonize regulatory and customs frameworks. One suggestion is the development of a standardized digital CMR, allowing for the smooth movement of truck-borne goods across borders through electronic contractual documentation. Currently, many customs procedures lack digitalization. Another recommendation advocates for the removal of visa requirements for truck drivers engaged in import-export activities. Additionally, to boost tourism, the B5+1 proposes the adoption of a Schengen-like tourism visa, enabling tourists to freely explore the five regional states.

    Despite the promising start of the B5+1 initiative, numerous challenges persist. In a region where authoritarian governance often shapes policy, the extent to which officials are willing to relinquish control to private sector entities remains uncertain. Moreover, the private sector’s capacity in areas like policy development and advocacy is largely untested. Previous attempts to enhance regional economic integration have faltered, and the promotion of a unified Central Asian market conflicts with the interests of Russia and China.

    However, if the B5+1 maintains its momentum, the envisioned outcome is a well-regulated and efficient single market that attracts significant Western investment. Under the B5+1 vision, integration can safeguard the individual sovereignty of each Central Asian state, bolstering their resilience against political and economic pressures from neighboring and external actors.

    Supporters of the US-led B5+1 process acknowledge Washington’s intention to enhance its influence in Central Asia but emphasize a significant contrast between this approach and those of Russia and China. The strategy of the B5+1 aims to organically expand American influence in the region, employing methods that fundamentally differ from those employed by Moscow and Beijing.

    Cooperation with the United States economy holds paramount importance for any nation’s success. From bolstering foreign reserves to attracting significant business investments, reliance on the dollar and partnerships with the United States permeate various aspects of economic development. And here, collaboration talks extend beyond financial realms, encompassing areas like travel visas, currency agreements, legal frameworks, and trade tariffs, all contributing to creating a highly competitive environment for investments in partner countries. Indeed, intensified cooperation between the United States and their allies in Asia like Saudi Arabia holds the potential for increased investment and developmental strides in the region.

    Moreover, as companies engage in collaborative ventures, the United States stands to gain allies in the region, countering the dominance sought by Russia and China over resource-rich nations. This collaborative approach not only mitigates the risk of monopolistic tendencies but also accelerates the realization of development aspirations in Central Asia. While Russia may attempt to maintain control through power dynamics, the path forward may not be without challenges. Nonetheless, for Central Asian nations and the United States alike, this presents an opportunity to foster economic growth and wield greater political influence in the Asian landscape.